Why Two Dimes Data Is Wrong (Continued...)

[gergery]

On a related but completely separate note, twodimes is also misleading in terms of its playability.

For example,
Here hand A has a nut low draw with counterfeit protection and the nutflush draw.
Whereas hand B has bottom set.

I would MUCH rather have hand A, even tho it is only a tiny equity favorite. This because its very clear to see where it is in the hand. When it makes its hand it has the nuts and can bet heavily. When it misses it has nothing and can fold. Whereas hand B never knows where it is.

In practice, hand A will usually win much more actual $$ than hand B, even tho the equity is close.

This is so much an error in twodimes, obviously, but more in how people typically interpret twodimes.

Flop: 6c 8d Qd
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ad 2d Kh 3h 205 205 615 0 630 0 0 0.528
6s Tc Td 6d 159 615 205 0 0 0 0 0.472

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
you must pay a tax to the guy that wins the other part of the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg - Exactly!

Well phrased!

I'm pleased someone else (you) sees it too.

Buzz

[Buzz]

FatBallz - I don't really feel like trading insults with you.

And to correspond with you but not respond in kind to your insults would be unsatisfactory.

This then, is the end.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pleased someone else (you) sees it too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Buzz, this is the source of everyone's frustration. EVERYONE sees this; it's just not what we were talking about in the first place.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
FatBallz - I don't really feel like trading insults with you.


[/ QUOTE ]

There is something deliciously ironic about calling someone fatballs yet it not being an insult

maybe its just my sense of humor....

-g

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
I mean that in ‘the holdem way of thinking’, when you win the pot, you win the whole pot. Essentially, you scoop everytime that you win. But in O8 you don’t.

[/ QUOTE ]
Obviously.

[ QUOTE ]
And it has everything to do with twodimes, because depending on how many bets are still to be put in the pot and how many opponent you have scooping is often worth more than twice splitting and can sometimes be worth as much as 7x more in profit (and that has nothing to do with driving the betting, but instead is due to the fact that every bet you put in will at best return half of it to you).

[/ QUOTE ]
Twodimes already accounts for this. That's the point that you aren't getting, but I will try to explain by exploring your example.

[ QUOTE ]
My point is that how you think about pot odds needs to be very different in O8 than in holdem. In holdem you always get the bets you put in back so its straightforward. Not so in split pot, as half the bet you put in goes to the other guy.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. Again, this is obvious.

[ QUOTE ]
Let's take a simple example. You're the button in a pretty tight game. The cutoff seat immediately to your right bets and you call.

[/ QUOTE ]
I assume you mean the cutoff raises.

[ QUOTE ]
The small blind calls and the big blind folds. So there are 7 small bets in the pot. On the flop, the cutoff bets, you call, and SB folds, so there are 9 small bets in the pot. On the turn those 9 small bets equal 4.5 big bets, and cutoff bets and you call so there are 6.5 big bets in the pot. On the river, cutoff bets and you call so there are now 8.5 big bets in the pot. So if you scoop, you win 8.5 big bets, and if you get half, you win 4.25 bets.. Now of those 8.5 big bets in the pot, you put in 2 small bets preflop, 1 small bet on the flop, 1 big bet on the turn and 1 more on the river. That's a total of 3.5 big bets.
So, let's recap:
If you scoop, you win 8.5 big bets, minus the 3.5 big bets you put in yourself, for a profit of 5.0 big bets.
If you split, you win 4.25 big bets, minus the 3.5 big bets you put in yourself, for a profit of 0.75 big bets.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree, so far.

[ QUOTE ]
That is a HUGE difference! In that example, scooping is 6 to 7 times more profitable than splitting the pot!!!

[/ QUOTE ]
I can see what you mean by this statement but I find it misleading in the context of this discussion because you haven't considered the probability of losing.

[ QUOTE ]
If this was holdem, you would be putting in 3.5 big bets for the chance to win 5.0 big bets. But if this is O8 and your opponent was freerolling you, then you’re putting in 3.5 big bets for the chance to win 0.75 bets. Even tho in both of these scenario’s your twodimes equity could be 25%.

[/ QUOTE ]
What you are overlooking is this: if my "twodimes equity" in both cases is 25%, then in the first case there is a much bigger chance I will lose 3.5 big bets than in the second case.

Let's go back to preflop, before I call my opponent's raise. In Situation A, let's say that someone watching me play the hand somehow knows what the betting action will be throughout the hand and also knows that I have a 25% probability to scoop and a 75% probability to lose (with 0% probability of splitting). Now based on that person's knowledge, what is my EV of playing the hand? 25% of the time I profit 5.0 big bets, and 75% I lose 3.5 big bets, so my EV is -1.375 big bets.

To make this absolutely clear, I arrived at the -1.375 like this:

(0.25 x 5.0) + (0.75 x (-3.5)) = -1.375

Now go to Situation B, where the person observing knows somehow that I have 0% chance to scoop, but a 50% chance to win half the pot and a 50% chance to lose completely. So 50% of the time I win 0.75 big bets and 50% of the time I lose 3.5 big bets. So my EV is:

(0.5 x 0.75) + (0.5 x (-3.5)) = -1.375

So in both situations from your own example my EV is exactly the same: -1.375 big bets.

[Buzz]

Let's go back to Greg's last example, but along a different line.

Flop: 6c 8d Qd
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ad 2d Kh 3h 205 205 615 0 630 0 0 0.528
6s Tc Td 6d 159 615 205 0 0 0 0 0.472

After this flop, in heads-up limit play, the second hand is stuck in the pot. That's not necessarily true of the first hand.

No diamond flush, no low, no straight, the first hand can bail before the last betting round. But if any of these come in, in heads-up limit play, the second hand is stuck.

It may look like the hands are pretty close but I think you're going to lose a lot less with the first hand.

(This has nothing particularly to do with my suggesting a scoop is worth more than two half pots in a real game. This is a different consideration, but one perhaps worth noting at this time).

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Cooker]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's go back to Greg's last example, but along a different line.

Flop: 6c 8d Qd
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ad 2d Kh 3h 205 205 615 0 630 0 0 0.528
6s Tc Td 6d 159 615 205 0 0 0 0 0.472

After this flop, in heads-up limit play, the second hand is stuck in the pot. That's not necessarily true of the first hand.

No diamond flush, no low, no straight, the first hand can bail before the last betting round. But if any of these come in, in heads-up limit play, the second hand is stuck.

It may look like the hands are pretty close but I think you're going to lose a lot less with the first hand.

(This has nothing particularly to do with my suggesting a scoop is worth more than two half pots in a real game. This is a different consideration, but one perhaps worth noting at this time).

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]

No one is disputing the fact that some hands have playing advantages on later streets which will make the twodimes equity less important. What people are saying is that if you are all in on a given street then the twodimes equity is all that is important and that it doesn't matter where the equity comes from (splitting, scooping whatever). Of course if there is betting on the later rounds there are implied odds and reverse implied odds which will drastically change the profitability of the hands. The point is that the EV calculation twodimes gives you the percent of the pot and every bet that goes in on that round that you will get IF YOU GO TO SHOWDOWN. If there will be more betting on later streets the cost on those streets may cause you to fold or cause you to make significant -EV plays that reduce the EV of the whole hand (or even make it negative), but this is why you should consider these things and not just the twodimes data.

The point FatBallz has been trying to make is that there is no statistical fast one being pulled by twodimes (which was what you indicated in your early posts). The fact is twodimes doesn't include implied odds or reverse implied odds, so with future betting, you must not rely entirely upon the twodimes EV, however, if you are going to be all in, then you should rely entirely upon the twodimes EV and the type of draw you have (scoop, low half, high half) is unimportant.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
there is no statistical fast one being pulled by twodimes (which was what you indicated in your early posts).

[/ QUOTE ]

Cooker - Gee.... I didn't mean that at all. I wasn't at all thinking along those lines.

I'm more interested in somehow adjusting my own simulation totals to somehow give more weight to scooping once than winning half the pot twice. (But I haven't been able to figure out how to do it).

I realize scooping once amounts to the same thing as winning for high twice in simulations.

But I continue to think that isn't quite true under real game conditions. I'm not meaning to be stubborn or obtuse about it. And I've tried to give examples to demonstrate what I mean.

[ QUOTE ]
however, if you are going to be all in, then you should rely entirely upon the twodimes EV and the type of draw you have (scoop, low half, high half) is unimportant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

I'm not a pot-limit player. A big problem on this forum is that individuals with limit-Omaha-8 mentalities (like me) have different considerations than people who primarily play pot-limit.

For example, I'm rarely going to be "all-in." I'm usually drawing for something after the flop and I'm always going to want to have enough left in my stack to capitalize on making my draw when I catch a needed card. When I don't have enough in my stack to cover betting a winner on the river, then I make a rebuy. (I can think of exceptions, but they're not worth mentioning here). If I don't have enough in my stack to cover betting the river, and also don't have enough in my pocket for a re-buy, then it's time to go home.

Since I won't be "all-in," I will have the option of folding (and thus saving big bets) on the third or fourth betting round. I don't have to continue to pay when I don't have a fit with the flop or when it's better for me to fold after the turn or river.

Please do not take whatever I have written in this thread as meaning to impugn or discredit twodimes.net (or Wilson) in any way. I use twodimes.net (and Wilson). I like twodimes.net (and Wilson). I appreciate twodimes.net (and Wilson).

Buzz

[TGoldman]