What do do with this draw on the bubble?

parax · #1 03-25-2005, 09:39 PM

5+.50 1 table SNG
4 players left , no real reads, BB was decently tight.
mainly , did i make the right call with all my outs?
i'm still new , and ITM is good enough

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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

Button (t2495)
Hero (t3580)
BB (t4610)
UTG (t2815)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls t200, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t600) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t1000, UTG raises to t2000, Hero calls t2000, BB calls t1000.

Turn: (t6600) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t2410 (All-In), UTG calls t615 (All-In), Hero ??????

the BB was pretty tight all night , and seeing them go all in on the turn make me think at least UTG was beat , and if i didn't make my draw , at least i'd go out in 3rd....

(still new , whopping 78 SnG's under my belt at the 5.50 range , with 40% ITM , but only a 6.99 ROI% (had a recent nasty nasty losing streak)

Any thoughts on my play as a whole would be great. Thanks

parax · #2 03-25-2005, 09:40 PM

Results for the curious new player types like me...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

Button (t2495)
Hero (t3580)
BB (t4610)
UTG (t2815)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls t200, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t600) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t1000, UTG raises to t2000, Hero calls t2000, BB calls t1000.

Turn: (t6600) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t2410 (All-In), UTG calls t615 (All-In), Hero calls t1380 (All-In).

River: (t11005) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players, 3 all-in)

Final Pot: t11005
Main Pot: t8445 (t8445), between Hero, BB and UTG. > Pot won by Hero (t8445).
Pot 2: t1530 (t1530), between Hero and BB. > Pot won by Hero (t1530).
Pot 3: t1030 (t1030), returned to BB.

Results in white below: 
Hero has 8s Ts (straight, ten high).
BB has Qh 2s (two pair, queens and twos).
UTG has Ad Qd (one pair, queens).
Outcome: Hero wins t9975. BB wins t1030.

Phil Van Sexton · #3 03-25-2005, 09:45 PM

- Fold preflop
- Checkraise allin on the flop, even after the unfortunate min-raise.
- Give us more than 1 minute before posting results

willperkins · #4 03-25-2005, 09:47 PM

I'm no expert, but I fold after the someone bet and and then someone else raises the flop.

Your pot odds are 1.8 to 1. You have 15 outs, but have negative pot odds of 2.13 to 1 to make the str8 or flush.

On top of that, not all 15 outs are good because you could make the str8 or flush and still have the 2nd best hand by losing to a higer str8 or higher flush.

IMHO

Fold the flop.

Phil Van Sexton · #5 03-25-2005, 10:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your pot odds are 1.8 to 1. You have 15 outs, but have negative pot odds of 2.13 to 1 to make the str8 or flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not really sure how you get 2.13:1.

T8s vs AQ = 56.77%

This is a push on the flop after the raise.

willperkins · #6 03-25-2005, 10:21 PM

Phil,

I respect your posts a lot and bow to your expertise. This was the way I was looking at it:

Pot odds:

t600 + t1000 + t2000 = t3600

If he calls the t2000 it is 1.8 to 1.

He has 15 outs (nine [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]s, three 6s, and 3 Jacks.

32/15 = 2.13 to 1 if he calls.

However, after rethinking the hand, if he is going to call, he should go ahead an push because it will cost him 55% of his stack to call the t2000.

That would make his pot odds around 2.6 to 1 if they both call.

However, I would still worry about making the 2nd best hand with two others in the pot.

Please tell me where my thinking goes wrong.

lastchance · #7 03-25-2005, 10:22 PM

Yeah, I like CRing all-in on the flop. I might actually fold preflop, though completing is probably fine, and better.

microbet · #8 03-25-2005, 10:32 PM

Why not just bet the flop? It's not like you are way ahead, so it wouldn't be terrible if they folded.

Phil Van Sexton · #9 03-25-2005, 10:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
32/15 = 2.13 to 1 if he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a str8-flush draw, all my chips are going in on the flop. Now you get to see the turn AND river. This is where your odds are wrong. You only figured the odds for the turn. It's really 32/15 + 31/15 - (32/15 * 31/14), I think.

[ QUOTE ]
However, I would still worry about making the 2nd best hand with two others in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another reason to push. A push might get the original bettor to fold. You don't want to be up against a bigger draw and a made hand (like JJ or A9).

If you are up against a bigger flush draw, you lose your flush outs, but you pick up some outs because a T or 8 may now win.

Phil Van Sexton · #10 03-25-2005, 10:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just bet the flop? It's not like you are way ahead, so it wouldn't be terrible if they folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting out is not ideal. Here is a quote from Paul Phillips on a straight-flush draw hand:

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is in a specific, important category of hands: those that cannot be large dogs (absolute worst case scenario you're a 2-1 dog, and even if he has a set you're only 3-2) but also cannot be large favorites -- you are at real risk to end up with queen high after all.

With this category of hands you must try to engineer the betting so that you are all-in first. You need folding equity in this situation more than in any other situation where you like your hand. If your opponent folds he will invariably be folding the best made hand, and this can never be a bad thing for you.

So if moving all-in on the flop is not a giant overbet you should do that, and if it is, then you should go for a check-raise. The nice thing about check-raising hands like this is that it's risk free; if he checks behind you it's no skin off your nose. A free card is just fine with this hand.

I'm sure you would have been called in this scenario by AJ, but that's no tragedy. It's the alternate universes where the guy lays down second pair or whatever that make getting all-in first important.

[/ QUOTE ]