New Candidate for worst fold ever?

[curtains]

This is biggest fold Ive made in my life. I really really felt the allin player had AA-QQ. That combined with the fact that I'll need to beat the big stack player as well if I happen to have the allin player beaten. However I understand it may be a really horrendous laydown. Flame away


***** Hand History for Game 1647110076 *****
200/400 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 9886907) - Fri Feb 25 17:57:04 EST 2005
Table Table 11893 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 5: CarlosCheca (4715)
Seat 7: Sungaria (1225)
Seat 8: WC3GOD (3460)
Seat 9: curtainz (600)
WC3GOD posts small blind (100)
curtainz posts big blind (200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to curtainz [ Jd, Jh ]
CarlosCheca raises (600) to 600
Sungaria raises (1225) to 1225
Sungaria is all-In.
WC3GOD folds

[TheAmp]

If you fold, you will be short stacked with 400 chips and small blind next hand. Most of your equity in this case lies in the hope that big stack (Carlos) will beat sungaria in this hand.

Sungaria is a big favorite here, since she bet all her chips on the bubble after a big stack raise, and given the fact you are about to bust. Also, Big stack will not call 100% of the time. If he has an Ace he should call. If he raised with rags or a low pocket pair he should probably fold. If he does call, it is fair to asses his winning chances at around 30%. Thus, if you fold you will win third place less than 30% of the time because Carlos will not always call. Even though you will still have a few chips left, your ITM odds will be slim.

Now, lets analyze what happens when you call.

What does Sungaria have? Most likely QQ-AA (lets say 85% of the time) and sometimes AK (15%). If you call, big stack will fold most of the time, and even if he does call, your winning chances will still be around 19% if sungaria has high PP (see step 5 post with 77 hand from yesterday or a day before that). On average, you're winning chances are close to 24%. But when you do win, you will have 1200 or 1800 chips (depending on big stack call or fold)- you will have folding equity and a shot at the higher prizes.

Call.

[curtains]

One note before I read deeper, I think it's too much respect to give the allin player AA-QQ 85% of the time.

[TheAmp]

I looked at the "worst" case to make my point, and based on the impression you had.

With less "respect", folding will be worse.

[Voltron87]

If another player were already all in and had been called (meaning a race which could knock someone out and put you ITM) then this is foldable. Otherwise you have to push. 1/3 of your stack is being committed, you can do absolutely nothing with 400 chips and JJ is a great hand.

Yeah, terrible fold at any buy in.

[curtains]

Someone has basically "called allin", as the big stack that raised to 600 is obviously pot committed to call for 625 to win the 2100 that's currently in the pot.

[curtains]

Another note - big stack should NEVER fold no matter what. To assume that big stack will fold because I call is erroneous. They can only fold here if they are a really terrible player.

[curtains]

The Step 5 hand from yesterday was much different because in that case the BB outstacked the allin player. In this case, if I call, the only way I don't get 4th is if I beat both opponents (And note that if the allin player is in 2nd place, I still am not in amazing shape). If I fold, I get immediate 3rd if the big stack wins.

[Voltron87]

What level is this? People will fold for 625 more if theyve raise to 600. Obviously not if they know what they're doing, but... at Party that is not always a +EV assumption.

I think if the player calls the allin, there are merits to folding but if he will fold it is an abysmal fold. You do have JJ, which is a great hand during a blind steal/ pushfest, so I would lean towards pushing. It does depend on reads and the level.

[curtains]

It was a $215 buyin. Obviously in this situation I was quite confident the player would call. In a smaller buyin I think it's an easy call with the JJ because the button could be much looser combined with the fact that the big stack might make a horrendous fold.