Would you push this?

[treeofwisdom7]

ok well im prolly gonna get crap but i voted fold why because 1/3 hands are better than QJ and i rather push with a better handon the next hand on the BB on the SB on the button or one seat worse. after the blinds i would have enuf for one strong raise..idk maybe im wrong but i dont understand why

[willie]

big i'm runnin as bad as you

but i still poosh this.


ps- i can't win for the life of me anymore....gahhh

[johnnybeef]

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with the blinds going up on the next hand and you being utg, doesnt it make sense to wait for the next hand and push any two? what is the difference between the range of hands you expect to be called with on this hand versus the next hand, and how much of an advantage does your qj have against an average hand (say T7)?

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My fold equity goes down significantly with the next level. The blinds double. 8-1 becomes 4-1. If I'm another player, I look at a UTG pusher with 4BB as pushing almost any playable two. If I'm a big stack, I'm coming after them with a lot of hands. A6 or so +, any pair, and many more hands if I'm in the blinds.

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while this is true, you are getting better odds on your push...furthermore, if an opponent is astute enough to realize that you are pushing any 2 utg, he will prolly realize the same when you are utg+1 1 hand before the blinds go up. i wouldnt be so worried about the big stacks as much as i would be the short stack.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
with the blinds going up on the next hand and you being utg, doesnt it make sense to wait for the next hand and push any two? what is the difference between the range of hands you expect to be called with on this hand versus the next hand, and how much of an advantage does your qj have against an average hand (say T7)?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know how to quantify this but I think that at a table with 1 or 2 other "correctly aggressive" players, one can't expect to get much of a chance to push with any FE out of the BB.

If Hero mucks now, on the next hand he's hoping for one of the other players to limp before the action gets to him. If a bigger stack makes a reasonable 3-5xBB raise, he's not going to fold to Hero's push.

[johnnybeef]

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[ QUOTE ]
with the blinds going up on the next hand and you being utg, doesnt it make sense to wait for the next hand and push any two? what is the difference between the range of hands you expect to be called with on this hand versus the next hand, and how much of an advantage does your qj have against an average hand (say T7)?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know how to quantify this but I think that at a table with 1 or 2 other "correctly aggressive" players, one can't expect to get much of a chance to push with any FE out of the BB.

If Hero mucks now, on the next hand he's hoping for one of the other players to limp before the action gets to him. If a bigger stack makes a reasonable 3-5xBB raise, he's not going to fold to Hero's push.

[/ QUOTE ]

hes utg on the next hand

[spentrent]

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hes utg on the next hand

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<---- I'm with stupid.

[C M Burns]

the ev calculator says it is plus ev only if all of the players call you w/ 77+ or a9+. If you make one of them loose to any ace any pair or kj+, then it says -ev.

So it is only correct if all are very tight, and knowing the players at theis level that is very unlikley, making this a -ev play. it is too many players to bet into for too little reward.

[The Yugoslavian]

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the ev calculator says it is plus ev only if all of the players call you w/ 77+ or a9+. If you make one of them loose to any ace any pair or kj+, then it says -ev.

So it is only correct if all are very tight, and knowing the players at theis level that is very unlikley, making this a -ev play. it is too many players to bet into for too little reward.

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Now think about whether or not it's a less -EV play than folding here...

You have to evaluate all of your options, not just whether pushing seems slightly good/slightly bad.

Yugoslav
<font color="white">who folds here generally</font>

[tech]

Also, it doesn't take into account the increase in blinds, which is an important factor here IMO. Once hero hits the blinds, his FE is basically gone.

[deathpotato]

ICM calc doesn't take into account the increasing blinds, which are very important in this decision, I think if this is +$EV with tight ranges while ignoring the increasing blinds, it is +$EV with looser ranges if we consider the increasing blinds.