Hand 1 and Hand 2

[Phil Van Sexton]

Call. Unless Phil Helmuth is posting today, I can't imagine anyone suggesting laying this down.

[Jester999]

[ QUOTE ]
SB leads out for $15

Here raises to $35

MP calls, and SB Pushes (about another $60 or so to me)

Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

....pushes his stack in, hopes for the best, and is already working on 'reloading' while the hand is playing out. If beaten, he swallows the bile that has filled his mouth, and calmly types 'nh' on the chat line.

[nightlyraver]

I actually think it was you, Phil, who likened me to Helmuth, so I guess I'll have to reply and field this one...

Here is why you must call him all-in: The flop leaves way too many possibilities for him to push with a weaker holding. If, as I said in a past post, he is one of those RARE players that would only put in a raise like that w/ AA,KK, or AK AND the flop was something like AT6 or KT6 AND he is tight enough that he would only push like that with the nut set, then you could lay this down. Note that these conditions are RARELY satisfied and you would have to know this person pretty well to make such a judgement call. However, in this situation he could have many other hands; specifically AA,AK or KQ and maybe even AQ (I don't really know this guy). On the flip side, he bet out considerably, you came over the top considerably and there was a cold caller. Then he goes all-in. Whoaa - warning lights would be flashing away. Against many players at this level you could still safely call, yet this re-raise stinks - I honestly do think that he has a higher set or maybe A's. Definately worth a call but I'm starting to think that you lost this pot...

First hand, though - terrible play. Most players with EXACTLY QJ would not play like this and that is the only likely hand that you are losing to. I think he has a set and is protecting against the st8 or flush. You should have called, or more preferably, pushed on the flop.

[josie_wales]

Pushing the flop is ridiculous.

Then I only get called by JQ

My worry was not the raiser, but the cold caller...becasue a cold caller could very well have QJ, right?

THEN, when the push comes on the turn, I know that that is how I for one would play it.

I wouldnt want someone with a set filling up, or someone with a flush draw to hit. The pot is plenty large enough on the turn to take it down.

I put him on QJ and folded.

jw

[amoeba]

I think flop push is not good idea.

and I understand what you mean by this is how you would play QJ, but think to yourself, how would I play 88, 99, or TT ?

[DyessMan89]

You guys are all suggesting folding in the first hand?

I thought there were intelligent poker players on this site?

[Daann]

I don't understand why anyone would fold in hand 1. SB has played this so strangely that you have to call. If he was worried about a draw out, then he wouldn't have flat called the flop bet, he would have reraised. If he wanted to slowplay a bit until the pot was big enough, he would have more likely have waited to check raise the highly probable bet from either you or the min raiser on the turn.

The only reason I can think of for this play with the nuts would be that he put one/both of you on a big draw (eg a set) which you would call all in on either the flop or the turn and so wanted to wait for a safe turn card to push. Seeing as you have no read that he thinks like that, you have to call. I wouldn't be that surprised if SB showed something like AT/AJ.

I would reraise the flop. They are going to call with a much larger range of hands than just the nuts (sets, two pairs, pair + draw...) and there are a load of cards that can fall that will kill your action/hand.

[bobman0330]

What the hell is going on here?? Have you all lost your minds?

Hand 1: Don't fold on the flop. I feel like giving you bad advice just to punish you for having considered it. In a more constructive vein. The raiser probably has a set or two pair, or a pair of 6s or some crazy hand. The cold caller probably has a J (if you had the nuts, why would you flat call here when everyone else is so excited about getting money into the pot??). You shouldn't just call because many cards can beat you. you need to make a big raise, and call an all-in. quit talking crazy

Hand 2:
The raise is probably better than the call, because you need to shut out a flush draw. If you get reraised, push it. Don't think twice about it.

A more general comment:
Your style of play is far too tight. I suspect that you're either inexperienced or playing above your level. Dial it back a few steps and see what kind of hands people win with. Very rarely will they be the absolute nuts. Also, for consolation, look at the zany hands people manage to get all-in with. It's true that hands like bottom set or the idiot end of straight can lose, but the winning play is to shut your mind to that possibility and focus on getting the money in.

[JaBlue]

Hand one: I'd call this turn push in a second - like someone mentioned earlier, its a typical bet with these stacks; don't worry about it being an overbet. Note that I'd say it is possible for QJ to make this move, but that's not the only hand he could have. He's betting 1.5x the pot, so you're getting about 130 - 80 to call, or a little better than 1.5 : 1.

Lets pretend there's no two-flush showing just to show how weak that fold really is:
At this point, he has either 88 99 1010 or JQ. Now if you say its equal probablities for each of the hands, JQ will be his hand only one in four times.

10 outs to a full house ~ 25% chance to win for him if he has those hands.

So if you call every time here, assuming he's three times as likely to have a set in this situation than JQ you get the pot .75(.75) + .25(0) = 56.2% of the time. This doesn't look great until you consider that you only need to win the pot 40% of the time to show a profit.


All this being said, if this was B&M and your opponent gave off some kind of huge tell, it would be much easier to muck. I just don't think that he has JQ enough in this situation for you to lay down profitably...

Also notice I simplified it a little, narrowing his hands down to only made hands... it is very possible he's semibluffing with a big draw here.

-Jared

[C M Burns]

One thing that seems to be taking place here is you are thinking the other player will think and be as tight as you which is often not the case. In hand one many people will just call w/ a set or 2p, 88 99 tt 89 9t 8t, at a9 a8 are all very likley to play the same as qj, the ratio of hands you beat to loose to is too great to fold. I do agree that bad folds are better than bad calls but i don't think this is one of those times.

In hand 2 I think you could go either with the rase or call to look like a draw to get more out of a tight palyer who would lay down ak, but if you raise it should be enough to pot commit you.