Easy Way to Estimate Odds from Outs

[Artsemis]

It's called the 2/4 rule and Ive never seen it mentioned on these boards. Then again i didn't search either so Im sure it's slipped past me.

To the point... let's say you have flopped a flush draw, meaning you have 9 outs remaining in the deck. Multiply your outs by 4 to get you approximate odds for the turn and river combined; or by 2 to get your approximate odds for the river alone.

Turn/River: 9 x 4 = 36%
River Card: 9 x 2 = 18%

Someone that knows the exact odds will see that this isn't far off at all, actually about a percent. The only flaw in this method is when you get up to many (15+) outs, this method will slightly underestimate your percentage but if you have that many outs you will know what to do [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[A_C_Slater]

Yes, I know of that one.

That is the ghetto way to do it. Plus, you're left with percentages, which is no good. It's better to know if you're getting 8 to 1 or 5 to 1, etc.

Here's a better, more precise way.

On the flop take your outs (we'll use a flush draw with one overcard as an example) and subtract them from the 47 unseen cards remaining (you have 2 in your hand and 3 on the flop (52-5=47)


So you have 12 outs in this example. 47-12 = 35

So there are 35 cards that won't help your hand on the next card and 12 that will, so 35/12 = 2.9 or about 3 to 1 to call.


On the turn you do the same calculations except you now subtract your outs from the 46 unseen cards.

These are of course, the odds of hitting your card on the NEXT street. But to decide your odds of completing by the river from the flop just take the 3 to 1 and divide by 2 and you will hit your flush or overcard 1.5 to 1 on the next two cards to come.

[A_C_Slater]

Here's another way to get exact percentages using the Ghetto method. Take the flush draw on the flop 4x9= 36%

For every number of outs over 8 take that number and subtract it from the number of total outs 9-8= 1 36%-1 = 35% and you get the exact number.

Here it is for 15 outs. 15 x 4= 60%

15-8 = 7 60% -7 = 53%

Your 15 outs are 53% favorite.

I used to use that but then I realized that I was taking too long to convert to %, then to odds (ie 4.1:1), then compare to pot odds. I drew up a chart of popular odds (flush draw, str8 draw etc) and figured it would take me a few online sessions to memorize. It took me about 10 minutes, and I'm nothing special.

I would suggest memorizing the odds. It's faster. Plus, other than being TV audience friendly, Im not sure why anyone needs to know the percentages.

John

i have to say, i really like the "ghetto" way of doing it, it's quick, simple and way easy to remember. i agree the latter way is more realistic, but the ghetto way is great, especially for beginners

now this i really like, it's good to know you can get exact percentages this way, thanks!

[A_C_Slater]

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i have to say, i really like the "ghetto" way of doing it, it's quick, simple and way easy to remember. i agree the latter way is more realistic, but the ghetto way is great, especially for beginners

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I agree.

But you will be able to do it the other way just as fast and easily if you just bother to apply yourself. Practice and time.

[illegit]

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I would suggest memorizing the odds. It's faster. Plus, other than being TV audience friendly, Im not sure why anyone needs to know the percentages.


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For some thinking in terms of percentages is natural and the conversion to odds-against happens instantly. I'm this way.

But why percentages? It seems like an uneeded step. Other than using percentage as a step towards Pot odds and showing TV audiences how "Owned" an underdog is, what else is percentages to make your outs help.

I'm not trying to be argumentative, just new to poker and not sure what I am missing.

John

[illegit]

Why not percentages?