ICM/SNGPT rambling thoughts(long)

[AliasMrJones]

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so again, which assumption is incorrect?

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Well, at this point in your ramblings, mainly that a push now will have a profound affect on your future +$EV opportunities. I think on average the effect will be marginal at best.

The only effect a push now could have is to widen opponents' calling ranges. I think we can agree that tighter opponents = more FE = more +$EV push opportunities. So, looser opponents is bad.

The problem is, a SnG is very, very short. and the push/fold part of a SnG is even shorter. I just don't think there is enough time for there to be much of an effect usually. Also, one push probably has 0 effect. It is combinations of pushes that might have an effect. Again, with the short time factor, the probabilities of having the right combination of pushes to have a significant impact is small.

Based on my experience, I think we're definitely talking about affecting less than one decision per tourney. If I had to guess, I'd probably say we might be talking about one decision per 4 tourneys on average?

[Nicholasp27]

ok, so now we agree that it does matter...so we agree that ICM neglects change in table image in it's calculations...

i'm not saying it has a 'profound effect'...i'm simply stating that it can widen your opp's ranges, which can have an effect ranging from .1ev to 1.1ev+...so i'm saying that if u know this push will have an effect on their range, it may be best to fold this hand

especially if blinds change next hand, u'd rather push the next one with tighter opp ranges than push it with a slightly wider range that comes from pushing 2+ times in a row

and i think the bubble is plenty long enough...many times it can last for 4+ levels!...all it takes tho is 3 hands...if sngpt tells u to push hand 1 and hand 2, then hand 3 will have a diff range...so if hand 2 is +.1ev, then maybe u should fold...

[AliasMrJones]

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ok, so now we agree that it does matter...so we agree that ICM neglects change in table image in it's calculations...

i'm not saying it has a 'profound effect'...i'm simply stating that it can widen your opp's ranges, which can have an effect ranging from .1ev to 1.1ev+...so i'm saying that if u know this push will have an effect on their range, it may be best to fold this hand

especially if blinds change next hand, u'd rather push the next one with tighter opp ranges than push it with a slightly wider range that comes from pushing 2+ times in a row

and i think the bubble is plenty long enough...many times it can last for 4+ levels!...all it takes tho is 3 hands...if sngpt tells u to push hand 1 and hand 2, then hand 3 will have a diff range...so if hand 2 is +.1ev, then maybe u should fold...

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A typical SnG is about 60 hands. You're saying the bubble can last 40 of those? I guess it's possible. It's also possible to get dealt AA 4 times in a row. But, how important it is is dependent on how often it will happen.

I don't think the bubble will be long enough often enough and I don't think if you're using correct ICM push/fold play you'll be pushing enough often enough for it to have much of a real effect on your longterm ROI. Some effect? Probably. Enough that it is worth investigating? Sure. Enough that most players should be frequently deviating from ICM? I really don't think so. Like I said before, I think for most people, it is perhaps one decision per 4 tournaments of difference and I think there is a pretty good chance of actually hurting your ROI rather than helping by deviating from ICM suggested push/fold.

[Nicholasp27]

i just popped a hh into sngpt and the first hand i looked at was +1.3%!

for loose opp

for maniac opp it went to -.3%!!

that's 1.6% difference...if pushing a few +.1% can move ur opp from loose to maniac (which isn't even that loose btw), then u are making a HUGE difference

from +2.8(tight) to -.3(maniac)