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#31
08-01-2005, 06:09 PM
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Re: RESULTS and my 2 cents
[ QUOTE ]
U realize when u have to call 900 to win 1100 u have to be right LESS THAN 50 PERCENT of the time...NOT 82 percent!!Actually a lot less than 50 then with the board pairing it is less than 40 I think. [/ QUOTE ] Eh, my bad. But still, factoring in that he catches up some of the time when he is behind the real question is am I ahead here better than say, 45% of the time (ok so that is less than 60%). Given that, I am mildly frustrated by those suggesting that this is an "easy" call or that I must be playing over my head because I even considered folding. Bottom line - my intuition was right, my number crunching - not so right. 
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#32
08-01-2005, 06:17 PM
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Re: RESULTS and my 2 cents
I don't necessarily think that raising preflop 100% of the time here is correct. I often will limp or call with TT from middle position, but a big benefit of raising is that it weeds out the 86o's of the world and makes it easier to put your opponent on a hand when he makes a 180bb turn bet.
The reason why most posters were saying this is an instacall is because of the way you portrayed the villian as a LAG. You softened your description of him a lot in the results. You played the hand well. There is no way you could fold here without an unbelievable read.
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#34
08-01-2005, 06:29 PM
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Re: RESULTS and my 2 cents
[ QUOTE ]
I think that those of you (and this is most of you) that are arguing that this is an “insanely” easy call, are idiots. [/ QUOTE ] Add me to the list of idiots. This is an insanely easy auto-call.
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#35
08-01-2005, 06:32 PM
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Re: RESULTS and my 2 cents
[ QUOTE ]
I am curious – how many of you routinely make huge semi-bluffs like this? [/ QUOTE ] In all seriousness, all the time against small stacks who are so afraid that they seriously consider doing things like laying down top set in a spot like this.
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#36
08-01-2005, 06:44 PM
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Re: RESULTS and my 2 cents
[ QUOTE ]
1/1.22 = .82 – so for this to be a “correct” call in the long run, I need to be ahead about 82% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] Even without taking suckouts into account, this logic is very incorrect.
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#37
08-01-2005, 07:14 PM
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Re: RESULTS and my 2 cents
In the Foxwoods $5,5 game against one of the, even moderately aggressive, big stacks this really is an instant call every time, if you have been playing tight poker. These players simply can not stop themselves from trying to bluff tight players with small stacks off of made hands. It is like a disease. There are players in that game who are willing to give up massive edges (those times they are called) to make bluffs in this sort of spot. I am not at all sure that I would have any edge at all against some of these players if it wasn’t for this one leak. It is as if they can not believe that a player who buys in for 200BB and doesn’t see many flops actually wants to put it all into the middle when a good situation comes up. Too bad you ran into the nuts this time but I really don’t think you should let it stop you from taking that bet the next time it comes up in that game.
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I am curious – how many of you routinely make huge semi-bluffs like this? [/ QUOTE ] In all seriousness, all the time against small stacks who are so afraid that they seriously consider doing things like laying down top set in a spot like this. [/ QUOTE ]
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#39
08-01-2005, 07:39 PM
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Re: RESULTS and my 2 cents
"Rounding off a bit – I have to call $900 to win $1100. So I am getting about 1.22 to 1 on my money.
1/1.22 = .82 – so for this to be a “correct” call in the long run, I need to be ahead about 82% of the time. Now, of course if I am behind I will catch up about 25% of the time so, that 82% is reduced to about 60%. But there are also the times where Villain is semi-bluffing, I AM ahead but HE catches up and I lose. But anyway, to be conservative let’s just stick with 60%. " Do you really believe this is how the math in poker works?
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#40
08-01-2005, 07:52 PM
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Re: RESULTS and my 2 cents
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think that those of you (and this is most of you) that are arguing that this is an “insanely” easy call, are idiots. [/ QUOTE ] Add me to the list of idiots. This is an insanely easy auto-call. [/ QUOTE ] Added.
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