Strange Spot

SmileyEH · #1 06-23-2005, 09:36 PM

Opponenet is 15/4 with high agg. numbers over about 200 hands so hes way too tight and folds to much. I think his range after calling the 3bet is AK maybe AQ, KK-TT. When he raises the flop I think its KK-TT, maybe 99. I called planning to donkbet most turns. Like betting the ace? I figure its a major coup if he folds QQ or KK. Thoughts?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP3 raises, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG folds, MP3 raises, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets

-SmileyEH

ihardlyknowher · #2 06-23-2005, 09:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Opponenet is 15/4 with high agg. numbers over about 200 hands so hes way too tight and folds to much. I think his range after calling the 3bet is AK maybe AQ, KK-TT. When he raises the flop I think its KK-TT, maybe 99. I called planning to donkbet most turns. Like betting the ace? I figure its a major coup if he folds QQ or KK. Thoughts?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP3 raises, 2 folds, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG folds, MP3 raises, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

Perfect. With your read, he has a 33% of folding here, and you are getting 8:1.

bozlax · #3 06-23-2005, 10:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Opponenet is 15/4 with high agg. numbers over about 200 hands so hes way too tight and folds to much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I missing something? I got the way too tight part, but how do high agg numbers equal folding too much? Or, since he's so tight preflop you figure he folds too much postflop, too, so the agg numbers actually aren't part of the significant read for this hand?

pleyya · #4 06-23-2005, 10:06 PM

i like

einbert · #5 06-23-2005, 10:10 PM

He's an absolute moron if he folds a better hand than yours here.

I like your line if he's capable of it though.

shant · #6 06-23-2005, 10:11 PM

I like this. I assume you're check-folding the river if he calls?

Grease · #7 06-23-2005, 10:13 PM

VNH.

SmileyEH · #8 06-23-2005, 10:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Opponenet is 15/4 with high agg. numbers over about 200 hands so hes way too tight and folds to much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Am I missing something? I got the way too tight part, but how do high agg numbers equal folding too much? Or, since he's so tight preflop you figure he folds too much postflop, too, so the agg numbers actually aren't part of the significant read for this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Aggression numbers are calculated as bet + raises divided by calls. So a person with high agg. factors (like over 2 or 3) usually folds too much because they don't call enough. It's not a rock solid read, but I have decent confidence in the fact he makes too many folds from his numbers.

-SmileyEH

SmileyEH · #9 06-23-2005, 10:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He's an absolute moron if he folds a better hand than yours here.

I like your line if he's capable of it though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you fold QQ or KK here if a TAG lead into you in this spot?

-SmileyEH

crunchy1 · #10 06-23-2005, 10:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's an absolute moron if he folds a better hand than yours here.
I like your line if he's capable of it though.

[/ QUOTE ]
Would you fold QQ or KK here if a TAG lead into you in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]
I hope, given your previous posts (and even though you won't see this), that you're not suggesting that you're a TAG. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]