Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Six

[jedinite]

I normally post picks on Fridays, to be sure of late line moves and any late breaking news. But I'm going to be traveling tomorrow, so watch carefully on these picks if there are significant developments or line changes.

Last week: 2-1 (with a push), miss on the Game of the Week. Only a truly awful performance by Alex Smith and a push on Jacksonville kept me from what should have been a perfect week of picks.
12-11 on the season, 3-2 on Game of the Week.
As usual, all lines listed current from Bodog but please lineshop agressively.

Kansas City -6 (-105) vs Washington
The Chiefs are coming off a bye after two disappointing losses to Denver and Philly. The Redskins rank 25th in scoring, averaging 15.5 points a game and are facing a Kansas City team who can put up points in a hurry. The Chiefs get a key offensive player back in ten-time Pro Bowl tackle Willie Roaf, which should open up both the passing and especially the running game. The Washington has lost seven straight contests to AFC opponents and hasn't beaten an AFC team on the road since winning 17-10 at Denver in November 2001. KC also sports a 17-4 record against NFC teams at home since 1995. KC's #9 rush defense should be able to limit Portis enough to keep the Skins in check. 27-14 Kansas City. Game of the Week.

Rams +14 (-115) @ Indy
The Greatest Show on Turf lands in Indy. The Rams bring perhaps the NFL's most potent offense (along with one of the most porous defenses) to the turf surface in Indy. While Indy's defense has looked exceedingly impressive this season, they've done so playing zero credible offenses. The Rams have proven their ability to score big points playing from behind this season, and this is going to be a big backdoor cover if not an outright Rams win. Martz is out, which might actually improve the team's chances assuming the remaining coaching staff doesn't make many of the same ridiculous coaching errors (i.e. they were Martz errors, not coaching staff errors). And while the Rams have a terrible road record, that's really obscured by a larger statistic - the Rams are much better on turf than they are on grass, and a lot of their road losses are "really" losses due to grass surface versus losses because they're on the road IMO. Indy @ home means dome, turf, and the Rams being able to backdoor cover if not outright win this game. Also worth noting that Indy is 6-16-1 SU in their last 23 games after being more than 14 point favorites in the previous game, and that in the game immediately after playing 49ers, the Colts are 0-5 SU. Don't get me wrong, there are a ton of other trends against the Rams (2-8 ATS in their last ten games, for example) and others for the Colts, but these two stood out as worth mentioning. At the end of the day, Payton puts up four touchdowns, but can't stay more than fourteen ahead of the Rampage. 31-21 Indy for the Rams cover.

Vikings +3 @ Bears
"We're just terrible. It's like we suck, man. I don't know what else to tell you. We can't find a way to win ballgames. I hate to say it: We always find a way to lose." - Chicago's starting SS Mike Brown. Thanks Mike. Let's add to that analysis that the Bears have two offensive linemen who are questionable, plus starting RB Thomas Jones is out, and Kyle Orton is still at QB. This is a big rivalry game for both teams, but the Vikings are coming off a bye week and will have put together a solid gameplan. The Chicago defense has done a good job limiting opponents yards and scores, but they haven't held together at crunch time and have allowed teams to pull out come-from-behind victories. The Chicago D will not be enough to overcome a terrible Chicago offense, especially with backups on the line and in the backfield. 21-13 Vikings.

Saints +6 (-115) over Falcons
Purely a public perception play. This line opened with close to 90% of the early money on the Falcons, and the line has barely moved through the week even with the news that the Saints would be down a starting running back. Even with the latest line moves and news that Vick will likely be playing, the money's still split 78% in favor of the Falcons. People tend to overestimate the gap in talent between NFL teams - and forget that the Falcons haven't looked all that impressive. This is purely a pride game against a bitter division rivla for New Orleans after getting pounded last week. Here's hoping for a close game. 21-17 Atlanta for the Saints cover.

As usual, all picks archived on my blog, www.Performify.com

[FishNChips]

great post --- thanks for this (every week).

I really like your analysis of the 'Skins/Chiefs -- my initial thoughts are the other way, but your arguments are very helpful.

Nice quote to start the Bears/Vikes game, but to be clear, you're taking a Mike Tice team on the road? That sends chills down my spine.

AND

you've got a Mike Martz team on the road??? That's pretty scary too - but I do agree with you on this one. Late backdoor cover seems pretty likely on this one.

Again, thanks for the picks/info every week.

FishNChips

[jedinite]

Thanks for the feedback and the kind words.

I know a lot of people won't touch a Tice team on the road (or anywhere) and I'm certainly considering that factor. I think with the bye week, the must-win scenario for the Vikes, and the three rookies starting for Chicago its just going to be too much.

If I'm wrong, I'll be adding the Tice rule to my arsenal. But the Vikings have been in my stable of usual picks for the last few years as a good contender, as a lot of people won't look at their games closely so you can find good lines there.

I also lived in Chicago for a while, and have spent a ton of time there over the years. I still have friends + family there, including people who religiously follow the Bears. Everyone I respect out of that subset of people there is really worried about this game - mostly citing the Bear's tendancy to suffer a letdown in this scenario.

I didn't mention it in my post, but in the last two seasons Chicago also opened 1-3. In both previous seasons, Chicago went on to open as 1-5, not winning again until game seven. I look for that trend to continue here.

I see this worst case as a push. I'll be really suprised if Chicago can beat such a tough division rival by more than a field goal without their primary offensive option.

[FishNChips]

Once again, all VERY solid points... dangit - I'm starting to sway a little bit on my "don't bet on Tice on the road" here. I may have to not read anything else you post this week especially since I've already got a 1/2 unit on the rams and I'm not sure I could live with myself if I bet two of the Mikes in the same week.

FishNChips

[ QUOTE ]
Kansas City -6 (-105) vs Washington
The Chiefs are coming off a bye after two disappointing losses to Denver and Philly. The Redskins rank 25th in scoring, averaging 15.5 points a game and are facing a Kansas City team who can put up points in a hurry. The Chiefs get a key offensive player back in ten-time Pro Bowl tackle Willie Roaf, which should open up both the passing and especially the running game. The Washington has lost seven straight contests to AFC opponents and hasn't beaten an AFC team on the road since winning 17-10 at Denver in November 2001. KC also sports a 17-4 record against NFC teams at home since 1995. KC's #9 rush defense should be able to limit Portis enough to keep the Skins in check. 27-14 Kansas City. Game of the Week.


[/ QUOTE ]

This one I'm not so sure about. The 'Skins scored 9 and 14 in their first two games, and then 20 and 19 since their bye. And is it just me, or has Mark Brunell actually looked decent lately? 30/53 for 322 yards and 2 TDs against the Broncos last week. The Redskins put up decent offensive numbers that game, as they did against the Seahawks.

KC makes me a little nervous. A good start against two mediocre teams, but then they get thumped by Denver, and we all saw what happened against Philadelphia. They've got the players and the potential, but I'm just not fully confident in them yet.

The Redskins have hung in their last two games by being efficient: they get first downs, chew up the clock, convert on a reasonable number of third downs, they don't punt much, and they limit their turnovers. They're not explosive, but they're solid. I've also enjoyed your picks throughout the season, and value your analysis, but I'm just not confident in any team's ability to beat Washington by a decent margin, particularly KC's.

[jedinite]

Simmons had this to say about the game, as he likewise picked the Chiefs to cover:

Redskins-Chiefs
The Chiefs are coming off two hideous losses (Denver and Philly) as well as a bye week, with road games at Miami and San Diego coming up, and there is literally nothing else going on with the Kansas City sports scene, with Kansas City Star columnist Joe Posnanski the odds-on favorite to become the next Danny Bonaduce unless things turn around. Meanwhile, the Redskins are 3-1 and playing with house money -- they could easily be 0-4 and they know it -- plus, Daniel Snyder lost much of his Trump-like Intimidating Boss Mojo during the Dallas game, when he was hopping around after Santana Moss' game-winning catch like a 13-year-old girl who just found out that Justin Timberlake would be appearing at her bat mitzvah. How could you be afraid of the Wrath of Snyder after seeing that? They're due for a full-fledged stinker.

Everything I've seen this week, i'm most confident of this game. I'm back on the road today and will be home tonight and can hopefully post a little more analysis and details tonight.

Regardless, thanks for posting your feedback.

[jedinite]

Adding two units on Detroit +1.5 and one unit on San Diego -2.

San Diego brings the NFL's top scoring offense to one of the league's worst defenses in Oakland. I see Oakland's homefield advantage as overrated here. LT has a big day on the ground and Oakland doesn't manage to produce as much through the air as they should against a weaker Chargers secondary. Practically a must-win for the Chargers who've lost three games already.

When the Lions moved through to a home dog, I moved to their side on this game. Public perception seems dramatically against them, and they seem like they're ready to turn their season around. A win here sadly cements them with a game lead for first place in the NFC North, so I think they're going to be very motivated to win at home.

[jedinite]

Adding one more unit on KC for a six unit play instead of five, still at -6 on Bodog.

Moving the Saints to a two-unit play, adding second unit at +6 (-105) to dollar-cost average to two units at +6 (-110).

[MookieBlaylock]

Nice input. Thanks.

[jedinite]

3-1 with two games to play (Chargers -2, 1 unit, Rams +14, 2 units)

Wins so far:
Chiefs +6 units (game of the week)
Saints +2 units
Detroit +2 units

Loss:
Vikings -2.2 units

Vikes loss formally institutes the Tice rule for me, no more picking the Vikings all year