How much action on the river?

[sfer]

10 handed Party 20/40. My first hand and I post in the CO. Folded to the hijack who raises. He has solid stats (16/10/1.7) but I don't remember him so I don't know how he plays postflop. I 3-bet with 99, SB calls, hijack calls. 3 players, 10 SBs.

Flop is Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I don't have a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB checks, hijack bets, I raise, SB check/3-bets, hijack caps, I call, SB calls.

2 players, 11 BBs. Turn is another Q. SB bets, hijack raises, I 3-bet, SB folds, hijack 4-bets, I call.

River is an A, not a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hijack bets. How many bets am I going here?

[toss]

I like just calling since the paired turn didn't keep HiJack from capping the turn.

[bambi]

He has AQ/KQ like 100% of the time, One you beat one you dont, that river sucked, I raise and just call his three bet, I dont see a solid player 3 betting with KQ, if he has KQ he should just call your raise, if he 3bets i think you got rivered.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

[ QUOTE ]
I 3-bet with 99, SB calls, hijack calls. 3 players, 10 SBs.

Flop is Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] . I don't have a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] .

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope not.

I call his 3-bet.

[Argus]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
I like just calling since the paired turn didn't keep HiJack from capping the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
This hand is too strong for that. Villain isn't super aggressive, but I can see this being trip queens, 88, or JTs often enough that raising and calling a 3-bet is better.

Maybe someone will do a mathematical analysis of villain's potential hand-range and disagree with me, but with a full house and several holdings that are reasonably behind hero I don't see why putting another 1-2 bets in is bad.

[toss]

Should we factor in the chance of Q9 here? I know its a lot less likely but it's a possible hand.

[Jake (The Snake)]

KQ is pretty unlikely because of the flop cap.

Q9 and Q8 are probably more likely than KQ but still not terribly likely either.

88 and AQ are probably the most likely, with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Qx being more likely than the others, imo.

Edit: forgot JT, JT clubs being most likely.

[W. Deranged]

S...

I'm raising and calling a three-bet.

Basically, villain's range is basically made up of AQ, KQ, maybe QJ, and 88. Q8 is somewhat of a possibility, though that's pushing it for the standard hijack raising range of a 16/10 type. Q9 similarly, plus for obvious "we have all the 9s" reasons. AA is a very outside possibility, as is a very overplayed JT... He's betting the river with all of these. Since 88 and KQ together clearly make up a greater portion of his range than AQ, I think we need to put in a raise at the river.

If he caps, we can pretty easily eliminate KQ and JT. 88 may not three-bet either. AQ becomes very much the most likely hand at that point, in my opinion. I don't see value in a cap.

[toss]

I don't think JTs is likely, but 88 seems like another hand villain could have.

[Jake (The Snake)]

Edit: Since I messed up this post I'll provide something hopefully useful.
---

Agreed. Villain isn't terribly aggressive either. I think a 3-bet on the paired board would be pretty indicative of AQ, Q8, Q9... although this logic sort of goes against the fact that he probably wouldn't be capping the flop with AQ if he isn't that aggressive.

I'd raise and call a 3-bet since we can probably eliminate or reduce hands like JT and KQ once 3-bet. 2 for 1 deal applies here too.