Jenifer Harmon decision to lay down AK on a short stack?

[ohgeetee]

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How do the odds change from the slight dog side of a coinflip compared to the same situation when you know one of your overcard outs are gone?

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preflop, AKo goes from a 45% dog to a 41% dog vs a small pocket pair. I didn't see the hand, so if it was AKs or post flop action, these numbers would change.

If you were being sarcastic, i missed it.

[arod15]

[ QUOTE ]
does any one know?

1. what were the blinds?

2. what was harmons stack size?

3. what were the raise and reraise amounts?

arguing in generalities will solve nothing. this looked like a super fishy decision when i saw it on tv but i wasnt paying too much attention and espn is awful about details. [/quote
I belive the blinds were 6K-12k with a 1K ante
Harmon had 250K
The raise was to 24K
The reraise was to 85K

[NYCNative]

I wasn't being sarcastic. The question then is whether that drop would be a deal breaker for Harman as a deciding factor.

[AAmaz0n]

I'm just guessing here, but I think that since both players in front of her came in with a raise she was suspecting a PP in one of their hands and figured to be an underdog to at least one of them if not both. If she moves all in, she is looking to be a small underdog to QQ or lower or a big underdog to AA or KK.

If one player had come in, she may have gone over the top, but I think that she was waiting for a situation where she more clearly thought that she was the favorite. Obviously, she didn't have a good read on these guys since neither was even close to a PP, but without a solid read she likely felt that she could find a better place to get all her chips in.

Shauna

edit; I would have pushed in, mostly since I'm not as good a player as she is and would have just taken a shot.

[drewjustdrew]

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It doesnt get much better than AK what are you going to wait for AA.

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You also have to remember that this had potential to be a 3 handed pot, which hurts her chances of winning although if she does she wins more money.

As far as waiting for aces goes, she can also wait for the next hand to raise with rags when there isn't going to be an obviously large confrontation. Ever consider that? According to your estimations, she still had more than 10x a betting round in her stack. Enough to keep some from taking a shot and coming over the top, or giving her, a player with a strong reputation, a chance at doubling up.

[10-20Jerome]

I see 90% of the players anserwed no to the survey. But maybe thats why she is a multi bracelt winner and we are not. I also anserwed no I couldnt fold there.....no way.




P.S. did you notice how AK treated two other players in that tournment [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[fnord_too]

When I saw that I just cringed. The set up was perfect for her to push, it could have been a little awkward if say Thaler folded, since pushing would have been too much of an overbet and the hand could have been tricky post flop OOP. IIRC the raise was to 35Kish (Original, not Thalers) and JH was in the sb with about T295k?

If she raises to ~100k and gets called, well, yuk. But the way it worked out with Thaler raising to what? 95K? This is a perfect spot for her: She still has FE, she greatly increases her stack if everyone folds, and if called she is in good position to get a lot of chips against anything other than AA/KK, and is not in that bad of shape against KK.

I guess she was thinking that even as the short stack, because she had 25 or 30 BB she should wait given the aggressive nature of the table. I just don't like that play though since there is such a strong chance that she will grow her stack by 50% pushing here. Thaler probably lays down tens and maybe even jacks to her push, and the chance of Lee having a hand strong enough to commit too (with Thaler still behind him) is pretty slim.

Edit - reading the thread I got the raise and reraise and JH's stack a little off, but they are pretty much cancelling errors in regards to the decision to push or fold.

[Boris]

Any way you slice it, the fold was terrible. She had tremendous pot odds even if some idiot calls with a pocket pair. Also she just might get stupid lucky have Lee call with a worse ace. How you can lay down AK in this situation is beyond me. I guess she was waiting to get it in after the flop when she's an even bigger favorite..... Oh wait she did, when Ballande flopped a pair plus open ended str8 draw. Harmon's pair of jacks were a HUGE favorite on that flop. lol.

[Boris]

how many bracelets has Harmon won?

[UATrewqaz]

If I have a medium stack and a good read on the players (aka I KNOW they have a decent PP or better) I can fold it.

With a small stack I'm pushing with AK no matter the action in front of me, if your goal is to win the tourney and not just survive.

Notice: She survied to heads up play but lost to a mediocre player because he had a massive chip lead.