River Value Bet?

[MoodyA]

Live 2-5 NLHE game at the Palms
max buy-in $500
sb has $1800
utg has $1200
I have $950

seems that both players are rather TAA but not enough info to be sure.

Utg makes it 25 to go
fold to me in middle position I call with
9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

sb calls
bb folds

3 see a flop of 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

sb bets 75
utg calls
I call

turn is 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

sb checks
utg bets 100
I make it 300 to go
sb fold
utg calls

river is Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

utg checks
I?

value bet and if so do you move in?

[Prevaricator]

I push here. I think checking is missing out on a lot of value.

[VanVeen]

Yep, yep. I guess I will add that villain's most likely holding a worse hand and he'll call often enough with hands that aren't TT/QQ that shoving is a must.

[MoodyA]

In that case I would question what worse hands he might have that would make this a decent enough value bet... for instance
I would..after his call put him on AA KK QQ JJ or TT and three of those five beat me so I see it as a 60/40 bet?

That being said it is a good value bet but my other read of these cash games is that more than not an utg player is gonna limp with AA or KK so I might weight the other three higher than the top two.

Is this a bad read?

[VanVeen]

6 AA, 6 KK, 3 QQ, 3 TT. 12 hands you're ahead, 6 you're behind. You win.. whatever you have left ($500 something?) 12 times, lose it 6 times. Even if he folds AA/KK 40% of the time to a river shove you should still be betting. Add in those few times he has a lower set or a stubborn JJ/QT and you're making loads of monies on a river shove.

It's an easy bet. Most have trouble folding AA/KK vs. unknown player who hasn't been sitting long. He'll probably call almost always w/AA or KK and will occasionally (often, in my experience) bet QQ or TT himself, reducing the relative frequency of being shown those hands.

[thabadguy]

I think you have to bet the river, i very highly doubt TT or QQ checks that river. I think he'll probably show u KK or AA, if he calls. I dont think he's calling river with JJ, but you still gotta bet.

[mgsimpleton]

bet, and it's not even close.

he's less likely to have the hands that are a set than the others so it's way better than 60/40.

he won't check a set to you on the river.

there is no argument even close to feasible for not betting here.

[autobet]

The amount you have left is close to a normal size bet anyway, so push.