($27) Call an allin with QJo on the bubble?

[durron597]

Please do not say this is an "easy fold" without thinking about it, because it isn't. I wasn't sure about his range but it's definitely any pair any ace for sure, what I was unsure of was the suited connectors, and how weak his kings/queens would go.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t1565)
Button (t5470)
SB (t3945)
Hero (t2520)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1540</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ???

[tigerite]

Unless he's pushing really low unsuited kings, and suited Queens below 8 you can't call. If he has suited connectors like T9s, 98s and stuff like that in there, then yes you can.

I probably wouldn't call here, unless he's 2+2. I know he "should" push with a wide range here, but a lot of people don't have the stones.

Oh and I'm sure you already know this, but you have to be around a 42.5% favourite to call here. Yes, that means you can call as a small dog. If it was QJ suited, then this would be a much easier call. Off-suit is generally around 41-42%, just below what you need.

[durron597]

Top 25% -&gt; $EV diff = 0%
Top 30% -&gt; $EV diff = 0.4%
Top 35% -&gt; $EV diff = 0.7%

Are there other considerations to take in besides ICM? No way is he pushing less than 25% of hands here...

[tigerite]

Nice hand though. Shows how much of a difference having suited cards makes a difference here from having unsuited (10% to his range, believe it or not!)

[zambonidrivr]

I think this is an easy fold. I know, not what you want to hear. IMO, I would rather push any 2 myself, than to call with QJ. This has nothing to do with "stones", only how you approach bubble play. Yes, my approach may be wrong, but it has been +ev for me all the way over the last 4 months.

[tigerite]

Top 35% is 0.4%, mate, not sure where you get 0.7% from?

By the way why has the donk left 25 behind? Or are there antes you aren't telling us about?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Top 35% is 0.4%, mate, not sure where you get 0.7% from?

[/ QUOTE ]

22+,A2+,K5o+,K2s+,Q9o+,Q8s+,J9s+ = top 35%, right?

[ QUOTE ]
By the way why has the donk left 25 behind? Or are there antes you aren't telling us about?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is PokerStars, blinds 200/400/a25

[tigerite]

Yeah, exactly that. I'm thinking there are antes posted which you forgot to mention, which would naturally skew the results away slightly from 35%, as there's more to win in the pot than just the blinds.

[Prime Time]

[ QUOTE ]
Please do not say this is an "easy fold" without thinking about it, because it isn't. I wasn't sure about his range but it's definitely any pair any ace for sure, what I was unsure of was the suited connectors, and how weak his kings/queens would go.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t1565)
Button (t5470)
SB (t3945)
Hero (t2520)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1540</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to answer w/o know the dynamics of how he got to T1565.
Did he lose a big pot w/ KK to A5? Was he squeaky tight to that point? Did he open up for the bubble? How long have you been on the bubble?
Just looking at the stacks and position, I or anyone can give you a canned guess, but being at the table,you should have the "feel" for whats going on.

I'm going to make the assumption, that he was tight, and not pushing means he is looking for action.
For this reason, I fold, perserve my stack, and push on him when he is on the blinds.

[Prime Time]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Please do not say this is an "easy fold" without thinking about it, because it isn't. I wasn't sure about his range but it's definitely any pair any ace for sure, what I was unsure of was the suited connectors, and how weak his kings/queens would go.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t1565)
Button (t5470)
SB (t3945)
Hero (t2520)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1540</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

Hard to answer w/o know the dynamics of how he got to T1565.
Did he lose a big pot w/ KK to A5? Was he squeaky tight to that point? Did he open up for the bubble? How long have you been on the bubble?
Just looking at the stacks and position, I or anyone can give you a canned guess, but being at the table,you should have the "feel" for whats going on.

I'm going to make the assumption, that he was tight, and not pushing means he is looking for action.
For this reason, I fold, perserve my stack, and push on him when he is on the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry missed that the bet was essentially a push.
Still fold.