Would you fold, call or push?

[willperkins]

MP1 has not played a lot of hands and the ones that he has shown down have been reasonable.

When I first began playing SNGs, I followed McEvoy/Cloutier's advice and only played AK, AA and KK up front. After reading HOH, I added AQ, JJ and on occassion TT from upfront.

Question # 1: Would you have folded preflop, limped or raised.



Usually, when I bet a healthy amount after the flop and someone like MP1 comes over the top, I fold. After all, he called my preflop raise, and my post flop bet did not stop him either. I would put him on AA,KK,QQ, or TT and let it go.


However, according to HOH, I should not do that. I should check the pot odds, assign a likely hand that he might have, figure the percentages and make my call accordingly.

Therefore, based on his preflop call, I came up with the following hands he might have:

AK (he would probably reraise if he had this hand)
probability: .15

AQ (he might call with this hand)
probability: .15

AA,KK, (he would probably reraise if he had this)
probability .10%

QQ,TT, (he would likely call with these hands)
probability .50

99,88 (he might call with these hands)
probability .10


Pot odds if call: 4.31 to 1
Pot odds if I push and he calls: 3.45 to 1

Doing the math, I should have a 34% chance of winning this hand based on the hands I think MP1 has.

Question # 2: Based on this, would you call, fold, or push after MP1 came over the top?




$10/$1
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) converter

SB (t1550)
BB (t1385)
Hero (t1255)
UTG+1 (t2305)
MP1 (t1540)
MP2 (t2855)
CO (t1460)
Button (t1150)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t150, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t150, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (t525) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t400</font>,
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t800</font>,
Button folds

Hero ????

Final Pot: t1725

You've already got a third of your stack invested in the hand. I think your opponent's range is much wider than you've given him credit for, especially at the 11s. He's invested most of his chips and you now you are getting great pot odds given the fact that you have an overpair. Minraises usually indicate a huge hand, especially over your pot sized bet, but the fact that a minraise almost puts him all in makes me think you should just shove the rest of your chips in. I think you're ahead often enough here to make folding a huge mistake.

[BadMongo]

Question 1:
I definately raise JJ in an 8 handed game, especially with 25/50 blinds. In a ten handed game with low blinds a limp might be correct, but limping in this spot is much too weak.

Question 2:
How are you assigning each hand a probably? These numbers seem pretty contrived. The probabity of him having one of these hands preflop is simply the chance of it being dealt to him. Also, that hand range is increadibly tight for a 10+1, but let's assume that your read is rock solid and this guy plays very tight. So we'll go with the range you listed. The question then is which hands would he be raising on that flop? I could see him raising 88-QQ, maybe KK or AA if it was slowplayed preflop (less likely, IMO). Against 88-QQ yoou are a 65% favourite, and agianst 88-AA you are nearly dead even at 50%. Given the fact that you've already invested half your stack, this is more than you need to put the rest of your stack in.

[stillbr]

1. Definatly raise. The blinds are at 25/50, you should definatly be raising here.


Easy push. I think your giving him way too much credit here. It is simply to hard to put an unknown opponent on hands this accurately. You've seen at most 29 hands from him. Villian is likely to have somthing like AT here. You're ahead the vast majority of the time against most opponents. It would be a mistake to fold here in all but the few times where you've played with the villian a TON and have a very accurate read on him, and even then it might be a mistake to fold, given the pot size.

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Definatly raise. The blinds are at 25/50, you should definatly be raising here.


Easy push. I think your giving him way too much credit here. It is simply to hard to put an unknown opponent on hands this accurately. You've seen at most 29 hands from him. Villian is likely to have somthing like AT here. You're ahead the vast majority of the time against most opponents. It would be a mistake to fold here in all but the few times where you've played with the villian a TON and have a very accurate read on him, and even then it might be a mistake to fold, given the pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]
What he said. A ten is at least 50% likely here.

[valente]

Heres a my very simple approach to online SNG's ( i play mostly $225 - $525, at a profitable level.

1. I always raise JJ up front, whether the blinds are high or low, if you dont raise it makes for difficult decisions later on in the hand, you need to narrow the field with that hand for any chance to win. If an Ace flops you must, MUST, MUST make a continuation bet.. normally people that call you are not holding Aces, people mainly re-raise AK and good players lay down AQ after a raise.

#2. You cannot fold an overpair when that much of your stack is invested period... as in end of story if you are beat you are beat, if you are best you are best.. if you try second guessing yourself here you are going to be wrong more than your right, and thats a -EV play... just like KK vs AA you cannot, cannot should not ever try to get away with KK.. Harrington says 1 IN 25 times you hold KK someone will have AA, if you try guessing when that 1 time is your wrong more that you will be right and dont forget the 20% times that KK will out race AA.

Keep it simple, Especially in SNG's.. and remember folding is the ONLY way make your chances 100% in losing a hand.