109: Bubble call from SB

[Taraz]

Am I missing something on this hand? If you put him on a range of any A, any K, most Qs, and suited connectors it's +EV to call. Who folds this?

[rbear]

Actually, you're right. If button is pushing here, surely he will push when he gets huge. Most likely the rest of the way. But, your relative stack to the other shorties isn't horrible here. You're actually pretty close. You may have to survive a round to get into the money, but stranger things have happened. Not like you're all the sudden the one shorty surrounded by giants.

I think it's the coinflip pocket pairs that people would fold this because of...

Knowing that the opponent doesn't push AA and KK makes it a lot easier to call, though I think it'd still be correct even if the opponent might have AA or KK.

There was a locked thread earlier tonight where a player complained about a SB/BB call with AJo (which was a bad call)... but the poster said only a donkey would call there without AA or KK... I've seen similar things posted here before (by good posters), which encouraged me to post this hand.

I thought the chances of winning if you call and win are outweighed by the hugely increased chance of busting in 4th if you call and lose (which you will 35%-40% of the time, even against random hands). This might be a difference between the lower and the upper buyins. In lower buyins, the two medium/shortstacks are folding way too much and pushing way too infrequently. Thus, you can continue robbing their blinds as well as occasionally stealing from the other big stack. This situation is made even more fun if one of the medium stacks gets really short. If everyone was playing perfect or near-perfect bubble here, I guess your call makes more sense. Interesting post.

Actually my thinking at the time didn't take into consideration a J3s push from him, though I have seen him push that-range before...

I was mainly thinking that there wasn't anything in his range that I was far behind to-- AA or KK-- and that I'd be happy with any A or any K, fine with worse, and not so happy with QQ-through-22.

[Shillx]

If he pushes just 15% of the time, it is correct for us to call with AKs. So the fact that he has J3s means very little. He would need a FAR tighter range to fold this hand. Having the chip lead is critical when making these calls. If it was the other way around, you can't call with AKs even if you knew he was shoving any 2.

[Taraz]

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Knowing that the opponent doesn't push AA and KK makes it a lot easier to call, though I think it'd still be correct even if the opponent might have AA or KK.


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I ran it through SNGPT with 22+, A2+, K2+, Q2s+, Q6o+, and 98s+ and it came back +2% or something ridiculous. It seems like a no-brainer call. I think a big factor is that you have him covered and the short stacks have ~4bb and not 2.

[player1]

i re-push also, mainly because of my hand strength (i see lots of pushes with Ax, 2 big cards, ...). but i'm not too sure about the real money benefit/risk.

[good2cu]

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His push is very close (but probably correct) and your call is a no brainer. Nice hand.

Edited

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Maybe it's a no-brainer for the average donk, but without running SNGPT, I know this call is -EV.

EDIT: Ok I was wrong. It's a CLEAR call, +1.9%, intresting note though, if you switch your chip stack with villians it becomes a clear fold, -2.1%

[J-Lo]

This is one of those situations where the meta game aspects of the game come in, If you were to push into him, would he call w/ AK? if not, then neither should you. But if he IS callin' you w/ AK, then call this and make him pay. Because you can push into him with any 2, and because your stack is bigger, he should be callin with a tighter range than AK. I like these types of hands/posts, where the decision is close. If he finds out u are folding AK, you can kiss you blinds goodbye EVERY TIME.