I feel ashamed for not raising with my no-draw ten-high.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
"So if this check/raise is a bluff, how often do you think it might succeed? One reason the turn lead bet seems good is because someone might suspect that you checked the flop hoping for a check/raise. But how likely is it that someone will think you checked through twice with a Q, or with even an underpair? Seems like just betting out is much higher EV."

He is loose passive- he open limped on the button- ie he stinks and is not a thinking player. When he gets check raised on the turn he thinks- oh crap i just got caught stealing. And folds. He doesn't think "what could the BB have that he check check/r with here?".
It also puts one more BB in the pot (though it risks two to win it so it has to work a good % of the time).

[/ QUOTE ]

Tolbiny,

Do you ever do this? I can't imagine making cr bluff moves against loose passives is better than just leading the turn. Admittedly this is a perfect spot but still. Thanks,

Krishan

[tolbiny]

I have done this- but not a lot. This situation is basically perfect since the turn card could not have helped his opponent.
its def not standard, and runs into problems when th ebutton is the type of guy to limp with A6o and then call this c/r. Now your in trouble on the river.
What i do like about this line is that a loose passive will start checking this turn around what ever percentage of the time you don't bet. Letting you hit your 6 outer more oftenthan you should.

[7duceoff]

I agree with leading out on the turn close to 100% of the time. Assuming you do, and are called by the button, what % of the time is correct to bet at the river when another brick hits?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with leading out on the turn close to 100% of the time. Assuming you do, and are called by the button, what % of the time is correct to bet at the river when another brick hits?

[/ QUOTE ]

near 0 for me.

Krishan

[7duceoff]

Krishan,

Could you give me some explanation on your answer?

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Krishan,

Could you give me some explanation on your answer?

[/ QUOTE ]

The pot is 4 BB. I got called on the turn. I don't think I'll get a fold better than 25%. I almost always check fold.

People make the mistake of following through on plans that go awry all the time. My bet on the turn is profitable. It get's all of it's profit from folding your opponent or getting called and spiking a pair. Once you get to the river with nothing, think fondly of the Slansky bucks you make and check fold. You can't squeeze EV out of a -EV situation which is what the river is after a turn bluff in a small pot.

Krishan

[7duceoff]

Ok thank you, I was viewing the 4bb pot and feeling like a bluff 25% of the time was the right play. However, I see your point about it being a -EV situation therefore is a losing play to bet the river.

Thnx again.