SSH and Utility: The Case for the Terrible 20

[Zim]

(catchy title, huh?)

Hey guys,

In a nutshell: I see no reason to play anything other than twenty hands, total.

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I've only recently been interested in improving my Limit Hold'em, so I went out and bought SSH. Very impressive, received it last night and I'm blown away by all the subtlities I was missing.

That said, I've always been a huge fan of abbreviated strategies (for multi-tabling purposes) and while I can respect the book's emphasis on maximuming your EV as opposed to minimizing the variance (and I recall a post by Ed addressing just this issue), but what info I've come across, suggests there is simply very little to be gained outside of the top twenty hands.

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Zipping by Pokerroom stats, I found that the top twenty hands (which, incidentally, virtually mirrored Skalansky's top 3 groups) were responsible for 90% of the EV of all players recorded.

Monster and big and medium pairs, big and little suited broadways, and big offsuit broadways.

On page 47 of SSH, Ed et al. give a chart that represents an expert player's database of 60,000 hands. Sure enough, right around pocket 88s ... EV falls off rapidly.

Of course, none of this can be argued to definitively typcast the EV from a winning player, but taken together it appears that regardless of your skill level, the top 20 hands are responsible for about 80% to 90% of your EV.

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As a new player to limit, if I can make 80% of my EV by only playing half the general recommended starting hands, and compensate by playing twice the tables (8-10?), wouldn't this be near optimal?

Variance would likely reduce, and *perfect* play would be more readily attainable.

Even 80% of a winning player's EV should amount to about 1 bb/hr, so at the 2/4 level ... this is still an impressive return on your money.

I know such an approach wouldn't work in a live casino, but online?

Sorry for the rushed nature of this post, I had hoped it to be a bit more polished, but this can't be a new idea ... so any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

Best,
Zim

[soko]

Nothing wrong with playing the top 20 hands, as im sure others will say, it's +EV but it's not maximum EV, if you're interested in maximizing your edge to the max there are many marginal hands to play, however you can't forget that if you're avoiding all marginal situations, many observant opponents (anyone using PT) is going to be getting out of you way which will lower your edge some as well, at lower limits this shouldn't be a problem.

[Zim]

Cheers Soko,

I might still play with this sort of thing a little, but for some bizarre reason ... I'm suddenly obsessed with playing competent poker.

I blame you guys.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Best,
Zim

[Vee Quiva]

You should also remember that just playing tight preflop does not necessarily win you the money. It also requires making good decisions after the flop. In fact since the bets double on the turn and river, I would say at least 50% of your winnings are determined by post flop play.

Please try to learn the whole game.

[jba]

hi Zim

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interesting post, but unless you're playing against total idiots, I don't think simple strategies are going to work very well. By playing this tight I think you are setting yourself up for failure against better players.

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also, having your win rate drop by even .25bb/100 will make your variance much higher.


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also, it's more fun to play a lot of hands.








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if you want to make the big bucks, you need to learn how to play good poker.

[Zim]

Hey jba,

Lol ... last time I put dashes in my posts.

Agreed on all counts.

Much appreciated.
Zim

How are you figuring Position in, or are you?

[Zim]

Initially, I was only going to take the top hands:

AA KK QQ JJ TT 99 88
-- AK AQ AJ AT A9
-- -- KQ KJ KT
-- -- -- QJ

AKo AQo AJo
--- KQo

And "split" them for raising purposes. Early I'd raise the strongest ten, late I'd raise all twenty.

I wouldn't bother to add more hands, only use position for aggression.

(I'd probably throw in some blinds steals, ten offsuit or better around the button, and limp with any suited hand in the SB position, that sorta thing.)

I know this sounds overly simplistic, but I've observed some truly dreadful play at the low limits.

Nonetheless, I'm not sure the value of this sort of thing. Even if it worked at the $1 tables, I suspect you won't make much more than $10/hour, even playing 10 tables.

Better to learn the game properly, and make millions.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Best,
Zim

[winky51]

If you sat at my table and I saw that you played super tight guess what? Every time you raise I fold. I am only reraising when I have you beat. If there were no blinds your play would be fine but there are. You will get eaten alive by blinds as no one is ever going to play with you when you are in a hand.

I used to be really tight and I remember one night live where anytime I raise they just all folded in a 10/20. I lost money and I didn't know how? I didn't take any bad beats, folded right, raised right. I just never got any action and when I did they had a set or better.

You have to play more hands, position, and be aggressive. Then players won't know what the hell you have when everytime you enter a pot you are raising just about. 1st in raise, 5 limpers raise on the button, 2 weak limpers, raise.

Lots of hands your missing that can win big bucks. You just have to know when to play them.

no offense here, because i think that its actually fairly good discussion... but this is similar to me going to chess and saying that the queen is the best piece so ill just move that one around the board the whole time.

poker is an incredibly complex game... in some games and situations its profitable to raise 27o preflop, in others you will be folding AK. its a long road and there are no shortcuts, just go play and get the experience and you will see how and why to use the concepts from SSH and other books.

eventually you will realise that the profitability of those hands is just an outcome of overall strategy