Going all in on the nut flush draw

thestevo31 · #1 05-29-2005, 05:52 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) converter

SB ($24.60)
BB ($14.30)
UTG ($24.50)
UTG+1 ($19.90)
MP1 ($67.70)
MP2 ($67.70)
CO ($64.05)
Hero ($12.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, MP1 raises to $1.5, 1 fold, CO calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1.

Flop: ($8) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $5, CO folds, Hero raises to $11.25, SB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $6.25.

Turn: ($30.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: ($30.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $30.50

Just wondering if this was the correct play

boondockst · #2 05-29-2005, 06:04 PM

Probably not. You have no fold equity at this point and it's very likely that a spade is your only out.

thestevo31 · #3 05-29-2005, 06:54 PM

Thanks, thats what I figured. I just needed extra verification to prove somebody wrong

tripdad · #4 05-29-2005, 06:57 PM

your play is probably very slightly -EV, but certainly nothing that is going to hurt you too bad in the long run with your stack size.

cheers!

xorbie · #5 05-29-2005, 07:25 PM

If you are playing short stacked, the one thing you absolutely cannot do is call raises with speculative hands like K9s.

sillyarms · #6 05-29-2005, 07:32 PM

I'm just doing this for practice. My math could be wrong and I'm sure someone will correct me if it is. This is just an approximation anyway as it does not take into account your opponet having redraw outs or the possibility of you getting another caller.

odds of hitting flush ~0.35
$ in pot = 30.5
(30.5*0.35)-11.25=-0.575
Ev of a call ~ -0.575

Ev of fold = 13

-0.575(1-x) + 13x = 0
x ~ 0.042

If he will fold more than 4.2% of the time this is a good play. If not it is a play that has slightly negative ev. Also I don't like the call pf.

silly

tripdad · #7 05-29-2005, 07:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you are playing short stacked, the one thing you absolutely cannot do is call raises with speculative hands like K9s.

[/ QUOTE ]

definitely. i didn't even pay attention to the PF action the first time i read thru.

cheers!