buying one out with KK

Spook · #1 10-11-2005, 03:43 PM

Live 4/8 hand. I have red KK, and I suspect I am up agaisnt AA. There are three to the turn, me first, then unknown, then AA lady. (Three bet preflop, called a 4 bet, raised Q high flop)
16 BB in the pot on Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I am first to act, and know the second player with bet if he has a flush, otherwise check or call, and that the lady with possible aces with bet if checked to.
Should I try for a checkraise to either protect against a single spade to buy the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] out?

stoli · #2 10-11-2005, 04:23 PM

Nobody is going anywhere in this pot, a check-raise is not going to protect your hand, push anyone out, or buy any outs. The K of spades may kill your hand by making a flush or a straight so you may have as little as one out here. That being said this is a huge pot. From SSHE we know that, "often with large pairs you committ yourself to a showdown."

Call this down and expect to lose, but given the action a check-raise will probably not increase your chances of winning this pot.

TheMainEvent · #3 10-11-2005, 04:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody is going anywhere in this pot

[/ QUOTE ]

SeaEagle · #4 10-11-2005, 04:28 PM

K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] isn't folding in a 16BB pot even for 2 bets. And it's only worth 1/2 an out anyway.

If you think AA lady would only 3-bet Group I hands, then you're drawing mighty thin as you're losing to all big pairs except the other KK (who's freerolling you). About the only thing you're beating is AKo with a single spade - which will still outdraw you over 25% of the time.

I think c/ring here is a total spew.

Spook · #5 10-11-2005, 04:38 PM

I am not trying to get the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to fold, I am trying to get the J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or TT to fold.
So that if the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] falls, I have to only worry about the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in her hand.

SeaEagle · #6 10-11-2005, 04:44 PM

Ok. Let me put it another way.

You are almost assuredly behind already. You have, at best, 1.5 outs, since the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is tainted.

You should not be c/ring here to buy half an out.

#7 10-11-2005, 05:17 PM

call down.

HajiShirazu · #8 10-11-2005, 05:23 PM

Why not check/fold, getting 16 to 1 with one out?

elindauer · #9 10-11-2005, 05:26 PM

You are behind with no draw and are deciding between a bet and a check-raise?! Why don't you just check-FOLD?

confused.
eric

W. Deranged · #10 10-11-2005, 05:30 PM

The value of buying like 60% of an out or whatever is like buying between 1 and 2 percent of the pot. The pot would need to be at least 50 bets before we should even start thinking about this.