Value bet the river here?

[jackdaniels]

Villain lose and aggressive pre-flop and passive after flop after 30 hands or so.

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds</font>, MP2 raises</font>, 1 fold</font>, ]Hero 3-bets</font>, [i]1 fold[/i, BB calls, MP2 caps, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.66 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks,MP2 bets, Hero raises, BB calls, MP2 folds.

River: (12.66 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???


Who value bets this rivar after villain calls 2 cold on turn?

[sean c]

I do. I would have raised the flop also.

[newhizzle]

id bet, youll get called by a smaller ace here pretty often

[jackdaniels]

[ QUOTE ]
I do. I would have raised the flop also.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would normally raise the flop but didn't want to scare off worse aces (AQ/AJ) and big PP. Also, the original raiser is a typical LAG, I put him on almost any ace and any PP.

You say the river bet for value is automatic? What is villain calling 2 more bets with pre-flop? And then cold calling two big bets on the turn? My spidey sense was screaming SET!!!!

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
You say the river bet for value is automatic? What is villain calling 2 more bets with pre-flop? And then cold calling two big bets on the turn? My spidey sense was screaming SET!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

i know 30 hands isnt much, but do you have any kind of read on how loose he is post-flop?
i mean is he the type to call a lot of bets with marginal values?
do you think hed slowplay a set all the way to the river?

if hes really passive maybe you could fold to a raise, i probly wouldnt, but i really think you have to bet, he may have you beat sometimes, but i think hes calling with worse hands a lot

[jackdaniels]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You say the river bet for value is automatic? What is villain calling 2 more bets with pre-flop? And then cold calling two big bets on the turn? My spidey sense was screaming SET!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

i know 30 hands isnt much, but do you have any kind of read on how loose he is post-flop?
i mean is he the type to call a lot of bets with marginal values?
do you think hed slowplay a set all the way to the river?

if hes really passive maybe you could fold to a raise, i probly wouldnt, but i really think you have to bet, he may have you beat sometimes, but i think hes calling with worse hands a lot

[/ QUOTE ]

He is fairly passive, I could see him having any mid pair, any big ace also but no big pair (JJ-AA) based on his pre flop call (and not cap). Ofcourse, like you said, 30 hands isn't much.

I like what you said about him having me beat here sometimes but often calling with a second best hand.

[thejameser]

easy value bet. no reason to get scared of a set here. it is much more likely he has a weak ace that he wants to showdown. lots of people call down with top pair weak kicker. i think a better question involves bet/call or bet/fold.

[jackdaniels]

[ QUOTE ]
i think a better question involves bet/call or bet/fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

Considering my read on the turn, I think I can find a fold here if I get c/r on the river.

Results in white below:

<font color="white">Hero DID bet, got called by A6 (two pair - now we know why he called 2 cold on turn) and MHNG. </font>

[thejameser]

30 hands is closer to no read than it is to an actual read. that said, there are times you can use limited sample size to help in your decision-making. he sucked out on you, it happens. would he call two on the flop with an Ace no kicker? hmmm.

[ QUOTE ]
I would normally raise the flop but didn't want to scare off worse aces (AQ/AJ) and big PP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I raelly don't like this logic. The pot is big by the flop, fight for it! Most SS players can't lay down AQ/AJ here and they probably shouldn't because the pot is pretty large. They'll call and you'll gain a ton of value. I don't think it's about waiting for the turn to protect your hand here either, as this board is not scary in any way.

Your flop slowplay may have cost you the pot as this guy made his raggedy 2 pair on the turn (not to be too results oriented, but I really think it's situations exactly like this one that are why you want to raise the flop in a spot like this.)

[ QUOTE ]
You say the river bet for value is automatic? What is villain calling 2 more bets with pre-flop? And then cold calling two big bets on the turn? My spidey sense was screaming SET!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that the times this guy calls you with something like AQ or AJ will far outnumber the times that this guy has a set.