HU SNG theory question 1

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
Cev is the same as $ in Hu


[/ QUOTE ]

This assumes each chip yields the same chance to win. I don't think this is strictly true. It might be a good aproximation.....but I've always hated this assumption.

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
HU is a dance. It is one whole story

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is very true.

[the shadow]

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I personally think its retarded to call knowing the play is -CEV.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



What about $EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

In a HU freezeout, CEV = $EV.

The Shadow

[the shadow]

[ QUOTE ]
In my expereince (of about 20 low buying) sng's it is rare for the SNG to last to the 50/100 round.


[/ QUOTE ]

Despite the fact that I just won a 4-player HU freezeout in 3 hands, it's not unusual for me to have the games reach 50/100 or even occasionally 100/200.

The answer to your question depends on a lot of factors, including your read of the villian (villian's prior play plus your expectation of villian's future play), your expectation of what edge you have over villian (or vice versa), and the stack sizes, which I didn't see in your OP.

The Shadow

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I personally think its retarded to call knowing the play is -CEV.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about $EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

In HU, $EV is proportional to cEV. You're playing for cEV HU.

[el_dusto]

[ QUOTE ]
The answer to your question depends on a lot of factors, including your read of the villian (villian's prior play plus your expectation of villian's future play), your expectation of what edge you have over villian (or vice versa), and the stack sizes, which I didn't see in your OP.

[/ QUOTE ]

uh...

maybe i misread, but i thought it *was* a post about stack sizes.

the poster is talking about instacalls, right? i tend to call any push when they're down to about 500; i don't want to accidentally walk into AA, KK, or QQ with any 2 and make our stacks even again... i'd at least like to keep a 2:1 advantage, especially when it's only 5bb or so.

this sounds like a job for gigabet's "chip chunk" idea... link?

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I personally think its retarded to call knowing the play is -CEV.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



What about $EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

In a HU freezeout, CEV = $EV.

The Shadow

[/ QUOTE ]

Not strictly true.

Assume BB = 3000

If I have 10 chip and you have 2990 you will not win this tourney 2990/3000 times.

In order for me to win I will need to be dealt the winning hand 9 times in a row
20 (1)
40 (2)
80 (3)
160 (4)
320 (5)
640 (6)
1280 (7)
2560 (8)
WIN (9)

I will win 1 in 512 times, or 6 times out of 3000 not 10.

Here are the factors that I think matter and how I consider them. They are in the order in which I weight them:

1) Skill level If you're of equal or lesser skill than your opponent and your opponent doesn't play a short stack like an idiot, call when straight pot odds dictate a call. You gave the numerical answer to that in your post.

2) Villain's Short-Stacked Play. If villain can't play a short stack well, especially if villain's overly tight as a short stack, fold much more frequently.

3) $/hour v. ROI. If you're much more concerned with $/hour than ROI (this requires that you be psychologically comfortable with the idea of a lower ROI and that your ROI is high enough that you don't risk it becoming negative), you should take all +cEV situations when either you or your opponent is short-stacked and all +cEV situations that allow you to beat the rake when you're about even.

4) Meta-game stuff. (This is low here because you're talking about a situation in which you're very very likely to win in a few hands no matter what, so meta-game's very unimportant. This factor becomes more important as the effective stack to BB ratio increases.) At my stakes ($10+.5), most players tend to play better after I call them with 23s; overly loose players realize that I'm going to call with junk and find a more reasonable pushing range, and overly tight players realize that I'm going to call with junk and start pushing with more hands that beat junk. So, obviously, I usually call pushes less often than straight 1-hand cEV dictates. However, there are certainly some players who will respond by giving me walk after walk and blinding themselves off, and I try and find these players and call them with 23s as much as possible.

5) Variance. Variance in HU SnGs is really low, so it shouldn't be much of a factor. I probably shouldn't list it here, but if everything else has you completely unsure of what to do, fold to lower variance.

[Mr_Oog]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I personally think its retarded to call knowing the play is -CEV.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



What about $EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

In a HU freezeout, CEV = $EV.

The Shadow

[/ QUOTE ]

Not strictly true.

Assume BB = 3000

If I have 10 chip and you have 2990 you will not win this tourney 2990/3000 times.

In order for me to win I will need to be dealt the winning hand 9 times in a row
20 (1)
40 (2)
80 (3)
160 (4)
320 (5)
640 (6)
1280 (7)
2560 (8)
WIN (9)

I will win 1 in 512 times, or 6 times out of 3000 not 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your example is incorrect as after winning 8 hands in a row you can now lose a hand and then still win the tournament. I am not certain how to calculate the probability of victory from that point off the top of my head.

But this is minutae and most likely unimportant as I agree with Irie.

-Mike

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
But this is minutae and most likely unimportant as I agree with Irie.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it is unimportant.


Ok your agree with Irie, great. Now provide some numbers.

Against an opponent who is way too TP you'll call _____
Against an opponent who is way too LAG you'll call______
Against an opponent who is way too LP you'll call_____
Against an opponent who is TAG you'll call_____