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#1
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Re: Marginal hand #5 Flush draw turns sour
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What's with the preflop call? [/ QUOTE ] I call there with that hand every time. [/ QUOTE ] seconded |
#2
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Re: Marginal hand #5 Flush draw turns sour
I agree with toss; I fold this every time. This is too little hand to pay 1.5 bets OOP. Especially here, because an LPP UTG raise can only mean business.
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#3
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Re: Marginal hand #5 Flush draw turns sour
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Since everyone has been clamoring for more marginal hands [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I thought I'd post this one that happened a little while ago. You guys can debate the play up to the turn if you want but this is the way I play these hands. My question is what do you do on the turn? Both villains are MegaFish* LPP's. Each one sees 70-80% of flops. Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls, BB calls. Flop: (10 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP1 folds, Hero calls, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 caps</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls. Turn: (11 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, Hero??? [/ QUOTE ] I fold the turn. Flop was capped and you're drawing to third nut flush on a paired board with a couple of guys who are passive but obviously like their chances here. Ax, JJ, AJ, is what I see from both of these guys. Key being, they are passive. They're not betting flush draws. You're getting 6.5-1 but you're probably going to have to call 2 more and the paired board can crush you if one of them fills up (If they haven't already.) |
#4
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Re: Marginal hand #5 Flush draw turns sour
Its close, but capping behind/tainted board pairing outs make this a muck for mine.
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#5
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Re: Marginal hand #5 Flush draw turns sour
At the turn I would call.
You were being offered 7:1 at that stage. Even if the turn were capped you would still be getting nearly 5:1 to call, and the odds of making your flush on the river were about 4:1. Its possible that if you made your flush, that you could still lose to a higher flush or full-house. However, I think that the odds were still in your favour to call the turn raise, because its not certain that the turn would have been capped. |
#6
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Re: Marginal hand #5 Flush draw turns sour
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My question is what do you do on the turn? [/ QUOTE ] Wish I hadn't completed a raised pot preflop with such a weak hand. But, now that you're in, you've got two loose players in with you. Do you really think that one of them is holding AJ? A6? AA? JJ is a possiblitiy, as is 66, I suppose, but I think it's more likely that the PFR is holding A-broadway and the other is holding ace-rag. You have more outs to your flush than they have to their boat, so you call. Yeah. If I've come this far I'm seeing the river and losing a lot of bets if I make my flush. But I just call hoping that UTG+2's raise slows down UTG on the turn. |
#7
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Re: Marginal hand #5 Flush draw turns sour -COMPLETE HAND
Well, so I folded on the turn--which is HIGHLY unusual for me with a FD--because I thought there was a good chance the turn would be capped AND one of these guys already had a fullhouse. I probably should have realized that even though they were normally passive they still ARE REALLY BAD PLAYERS and could have just about anything.
I mainly wanted to make sure that I wasn't the only one who would chicken out here. Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls, BB calls. Flop: (10 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP1 folds, Hero calls, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 caps</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls. Turn: (11 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, Hero folds, UTG calls. River: (15 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, UTG calls. Final Pot: 17 BB Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF"> UTG has Td Th (two pair, aces and tens). UTG+2 has Ah 7s (three of a kind, aces). Outcome: UTG+2 wins 17 BB. </font> |
#8
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Re: Marginal hand #5 Flush draw turns sour -COMPLETE HAND
Also, I'm calling the turn. If I knew there would be no more raises, a call would be a no-brainer, and even if I knew it would be capped a call still wouldn't be all that horrible. If it were capped, I'd be getting 3.75:1 which is a little lower than what I ideally need to make putting in 4 bets correct. You also have to consider that I should discount my flush outs somewhat. Then again, I'm getting a couple more BBs on the river if I hit safely, so it's close. By calling on the turn, my play is good if its not capped and only slightly wrong if it is capped, so I'll take my chances and toss in a call. It's close though and I can't argue too much with a fold.
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#9
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Re: Marginal hand #5 Flush draw CALLING OUT THE PRE-FLOP FOLDERS
OK. All of you guys that want to fold this pre-flop step up and post your BB/Hand for the SB and BB. Let's see where we all stand.
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#10
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Re: Marginal hand #5 Flush draw CALLING OUT THE PRE-FLOP FOLDERS
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OK. All of you guys that want to fold this pre-flop step up and post your BB/Hand for the SB and BB. Let's see where we all stand. [/ QUOTE ] I've seen your PT numbers out of the blinds, and I will just be honest and say that I don't believe them. I'm not saying you're just making them up; I'm saying that you're going to get well-acquainted with a concept called "reversion to the mean" sometime in the future. They're far out of whack with any other set of stats I've ever seen posted, and the fact that you semi-coldcall all day long with suited junk out of the SB makes me even more convinced that you're just running well from those positions. In answer to your question, though, I'm at (.13) in the BB and (.12) in the SB. I think my PT BB winrate is overstated. |
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