KJo - what do you think of this line?

[Nick Royale]

CO 14/10/2.8 ~800 hands
MP3 43/8/0.9 ~200 hands
CO seems like an ok TAG and I think he knows I am too. MP3 is crappy and pretty aggressive, but not always in the right spots.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, BB folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets...</font>

[SlyGuy]

Well, if you don't think the CO will raise you with a worse hand on the river ( i assume you fold the river to a raise). CO looks a lot like a flopped set. Would he 3-bet KT on the flop? I would prefer just getting to showdown here.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you don't think the CO will raise you with a worse hand on the river ( i assume you fold the river to a raise). CO looks a lot like a flopped set. Would he 3-bet KT on the flop? I would prefer just getting to showdown here.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm paying off a raise from MP3 unless CO coldcalls, but I really don't think MP3 will raise very often here.

[SlyGuy]

What are you putting CO on?

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
What are you putting CO on?

[/ QUOTE ]
Given preflop, no king better than KJo. There's no 2 pair possibilities or draw so other than a pair of kings he could just have 55/22.

Hands we're ahead of:
KT: 8 combos
K9s: 2 combos
Kxs: 2 combos
Total: 12 combos

Hands we're behind of:
55/22: 6 combos
Total 6 combos

Given his willingness to 3-bet the flop I would discount the 12 K-combos to ~6 (maybe even a little less). Plus we have 6 combos of KJo we would like to see a sd against (discounted and the split taken into consideration not worth more than 2 combos in relation to 55/33).

[SlyGuy]

I would lean toward C/C on the river.

Off the top of my head, I think that top pair-jack kicker OOP is not what I want to play when it comes back to me 3-bet, and I fold on the flop. I'm sure I would have done this in the heat of the moment.

Thinking about it, I wonder what CO 3-bets on the flop that he overlimps preflop. 55 or 22? I doubt it. K5 or K2? Please. KJo or KTo makes some sense, although even with these I would expect 14/10 to raise to isolate the loose limper. An oddly played AA is the only other thing I can think of.

Having thought about it, I still think this is afold, but I'm likely not ready to play 5/10 yet.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Off the top of my head, I think that top pair-jack kicker OOP is not what I want to play when it comes back to me 3-bet, and I fold on the flop. I'm sure I would have done this in the heat of the moment.

[/ QUOTE ]
My initial thought was to fold, but then I thought about it and decided to call.

[ QUOTE ]
KJo or KTo makes some sense, although even with these I would expect 14/10 to raise to isolate the loose limper.

[/ QUOTE ]
He had 2 limpers in front preflop.

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
Off the top of my head, I think that top pair-jack kicker OOP is not what I want to play when it comes back to me 3-bet, and I fold on the flop. I'm sure I would have done this in the heat of the moment.


My initial thought was to fold, but then I thought about it and decided to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two things about the flop:

1. MP3 is pretty passive. How often do you think he has a king here? If it's pretty often, it also makes it even less likely that CO has a king and more likely he has a set.

2. Reverse implied odds will kinda suck on this hand because when CO has a set you are stuck calling multiple bets, and even more bets when you hit a king or jack.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
1. MP3 is pretty passive. How often do you think he has a king here? If it's pretty often, it also makes it even less likely that CO has a king and more likely he has a set.

[/ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't consider 0.9 especially passive having a vpip of 43. And his 8% pfr makes it hard for him to hold a better K. MP3 is a problem though, in more than 1 way. If he caps the flop I will fold the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
2. Reverse implied odds will kinda suck on this hand because when CO has a set you are stuck calling multiple bets, and even more bets when you hit a king or jack.

[/ QUOTE ]
I actually don't think the reversed implied odds suck here as CO will pay me the same ammount when I'm ahead. CO will bet the turn with a K but often take a free sd if I call to the river. The bet at the river is to prevent the reversed implied odds by getting paid when ahead. Also the pot is pretty big making the rio a smaller factor.

We have a problem though. When behind we're way behind drawing as good as dead. When we're ahead CO has 3 outs which is not very much, but here's where MP3 becomes a concern again. He's likely to have 3-5 additional outs against me making it 6-8 outs. And since there's no way I'm getting MP3 to fold that will cut pretty big into my equity. Still, of about 13 combos I'm ahead of 5, splitting to 2 and loses to 6. I think that's enough for a call-down.

About hitting a K or J, I know that won't improve my hand against CO, but if I hit a K or J I will instead check/call the river since I otherwise would have to call a raise (he might raise KT when he rivers trips) and I'm now also certain he'll bet the river value betting his trips. At the same time I'm all of a sudden ahead of less combos since there's now less combos of KT/K9s/Kxs possible.