SSH question re: overcards & counting outs

[Cygnus]

Ed,

First, OHMYGOD is this book opening my eyes. In addition to the quality of the content, it is extremely well written and easy for non-MIT grads like me to grasp the ML behind the strategies. Now I really understand the contrast w/ WLLHE David was alluding to in his posts.

I owe you many beers. Now to my question:

On P.221 hand #2 there appears to be a 2-gap backdoor wheel draw which is not mentioned when you're counting outs for that hand. Is it because we're drawing to the small end of the straight? My real question is...in that situation should we count .5 outs for the backdoor straight draw?

Thanks!

[MicroBob]

i have not made it that far yet...but decided to skip ahead just to see what you were talking about.


there is also a back-door draw to the broadway straight which is worth considering.

any 3, 4, J, or Q on the turn gives you the inside straight draw. obviously your wheel would be beat by any 6....but i certainly think it is worth considering in your outs.


again though...i haven't made it this far...so it is extremely likely that there is some info regarding outs-calculation that makes my analysis completely moot.
i am not an NPA afterall.

[BugsBunny]

I'm not Ed but I'll take a shot.

At best a 2 gap backdoor straight straight is worth maybe .5 outs. It'll only come in 1.5% of the time.

In this case at least some of the time when the backdoor straight comes in you'll also have a flush. This lowers the value of the backdoor straight even more. And, in other cases (as you've alluded) you'll get your backdoor straight and lose to someone holding a 6. In additional cases you'll get your straight but lose to a flush (if one of the cards is the 3 or 4 of spades).

Adding all that together I think that the backdoor straight adds so little to your hand that counting it towards your outs is basically meaningless. Without doing any math I'd guess that it's worth maybe .2 outs in total (at best .3) - which isn't really enough to sway a decision one way or the other. Since it's all estimates anyway adding .2 to an estimate of 4.5 outs still leaves you with 4.5 outs (going down to the nearest .5 outs, which is all that's practical in a situation like this, I think).

So the final answer is that the backdoor 2 gap straight adds so little to your hand in a situation like this as to be almost worthless. (It does add some minimal value to your hand but not enough to effect flop decisions)

[BugsBunny]

Hmm - I didn't even see the backdoor broadway straight. That changes things slightly in regards to my previous answer. Now I think that the combination of the 2 backdoor straights can be considered as a full .5 outs, upping the total from 4.5 outs from that hand to 5 outs.

But we'll see what Ed says.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Now I think that the combination of the 2 backdoor straights can be considered as a full .5 outs, upping the total from 4.5 outs from that hand to 5 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]



i agree....as if that means very much!! lol
the wheel isn't worth a heck of a lot...but the broadway straight has to be worth something.
i think .2 plus .3 is reasonable. i might even go as far as .3 plus .4....but that would be really nit-picky sillyness when we are considering whether to bet/call/fold here based on the number of outs. whether it's 4.5 or 5 or even 5.5 your decision is likely to be the same....but i suppose there are situations where you could be swayed to play slightly differently for 5.5 outs rather then 4.5 outs.


obviously, if you get one of the spades you are reasonably content with your flush-draw possibilties as well (even if you don't hit it, you'll have increased outs on the turn).

[Ed Miller]

I'm glad you like the book.

As for your question, I wasn't kidding when I said I didn't have a copy yet, so I can't look up the page reference. I'm not quite sure what hand you're talking about.

Having said that, I did sometimes intentionally neglect to mention incidental backdoor straight draws when they had a very small effect on the hand. While it's important always to count all your outs, it would have made the text cumbersome for me to mention every last backdoor straight draw. After all, you have at least some kind of hairy 3-straight on most of your hands.

[BugsBunny]

Hand: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Flop: T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Text:
"In hand #2 you have 2 strong overcards and a backdoor nut flush draw on a relatively ragged flop. You can fairly ascribe about 1.5 outs to each overcard and 1.5 outs to the backdoor draw, making this hand worth about 4.5 outs"

[TwoShedsJackson]

[ QUOTE ]
Ed,

First, OHMYGOD is this book opening my eyes. In addition to the quality of the content, it is extremely well written and easy for non-MIT grads like me to grasp the ML behind the strategies. Now I really understand the contrast w/ WLLHE David was alluding to in his posts.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have to agree with this, it's the most readable poker book ever. Only the counting outs section will likely have to be read at least another three times before I can comprehend it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[LSUfan1]

I have to agree completely. I am a quarter of the way through this book and I just got it yesterday. This is far easier for me to read being fairly new to the game then some of the other poker books I have. From what I can see so far this book will help considerably, as I have already found many faults in my approach.

Thank you so much guys for this book!

[sublime]

"In hand #2 you have 2 strong overcards and a backdoor nut flush draw on a relatively ragged flop. You can fairly ascribe about 1.5 outs to each overcard and 1.5 outs to the backdoor draw, making this hand worth about 4.5 outs"

Why only 1.5 outs to each overcard?