Help with my stats

[BreakfastBurrito]

OK, so I made my first attempt at 5/10 6 max about 6 months ago and got destroyed. Over 10k hands the stats looks like this:

VPIP 21.1
PFR 13.75
Folded SB to Steal 79
Folded BB to Steal 69.5
Attempted to Steal 27.9
Went to showdown 30.8
Won $ at showdown 54.4
AF - 1.43 PF, 4.14 Flop, 3.52 Turn, 1.86 River, 2.32 overall

I took a break from poker, started playing again about 6 weeks ago and am 6,000 hands into the latest attempt, took my first look at the stats yesterday, and would love some comments. Have I gone too far?

These are combined 5/10 6 max and 3/6 6 max stats (3500 5/10, 2500 3/6), which are basically the same, the only significant difference being i'm folding bb to steal 30.4% in 5/10 6 max and 41% in 3/6 6 max.

VPIP 28.53
PFR 20.31
Folded SB to Steal 71.5
Folded BB to Steal 34.8
Attempted to Steal 39.2
Went to showdown 33.5
Won $ at showdown 56.9
AF - 1.83 PF, 3.2 Flop, 2.74 Turn, 1.89 River, 2.32 overall
Folded to river bet 48.7%

[ggbman]

I think being 28/10 is much better than 21/13 if you can play dcecently postflop.

[Derek in NYC]

Im far from a stats guy, but a few points stuck out to me:

1. I think you're overdefending your BB

2. I think your ASB may be a tad high for 5/10; if you're effective stealing this often, then good on you for exercising excellent selectivity.

3. Your flop aggression seems a bit too high given your VPIP/PFR. Are you making too many autobets on the flop? I'd ask myself whether I'm autobetting too much, particularly OOP or into large fields.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
I think being 28/10 is much better than 21/13 if you can play dcecently postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 21/13 is much better than 28/20 if you have less than 20K SH experience. My recommendation however would be 23/16.

Krishan

[BreakfastBurrito]

[ QUOTE ]
1. I think you're overdefending your BB


[/ QUOTE ]

I was also surprised by how much I was defending. Interestingly enough, and I know my sample size is still very small, is that my loss rate is the same out of the bb whether i'm folding 69% of the time or 30% of the time. What is a decent loss rate out of the bb?

[ QUOTE ]
2. I think your ASB may be a tad high for 5/10; if you're effective stealing this often, then good on you for exercising excellent selectivity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll keep it in mind, I haven't specifically noticed getting 3 bet a lot or putting myself into bad situations too often in my steal attempts though.

[ QUOTE ]
3. Your flop aggression seems a bit too high given your VPIP/PFR. Are you making too many autobets on the flop? I'd ask myself whether I'm autobetting too much, particularly OOP or into large fields.

[/ QUOTE ]

I autobet a ton on the flop. When OOP, I try not to get too out of line, but I'll almost always find myself firing with AQ or AJ UTG on a K x x flop against two cold callers. Is this pushing it too much? Where should I draw the line? Also, with position, if I've raised preflop, I will bet any flop if checked to against one or two opponents. I've been figuring that with 6-7 sb's typically in the pot at that point, fold equity plus free turn card potential makes that bet correct every time. Faulty reasoning? The flop autobets do lead to a lot of river folds though, which I'm not too ecstatic about.

Any other thoughts?

[EvanJC]

i see you've been following the "go to showdown and win more" advice during this latest go. good idea ^_-

[imitation]

If you go to the river and fold that much with a vp$ip of 28 you will get killed, imo.

[TMFS9]

[ QUOTE ]
2. I think your ASB may be a tad high for 5/10; if you're effective stealing this often, then good on you for exercising excellent selectivity.


[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I'm pretty certain ASB is where it needs to be for the 5/10 game.

[BreakfastBurrito]

[ QUOTE ]
If you go to the river and fold that much with a vp$ip of 28 you will get killed, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that a lot of my river folds are with J or Q high after I've raised with position preflop, been checked called on a flop that missed me and I've checked through on the turn. If I notice this pattern developing, I typically follow through on a few more turns.

After my first go around, I thought that what got me killed was following up on the turn too often and even taking additional shots on the river against bottom pair who will never fold.

[Derek in NYC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2. I think your ASB may be a tad high for 5/10; if you're effective stealing this often, then good on you for exercising excellent selectivity.


[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I'm pretty certain ASB is where it needs to be for the 5/10 game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldnt say a 39% ASB is way out of line, but Im just comparing it to my own, which is in the low 30s. It may be that mine is too low. But the problem I've found with being too liberal in your ASBs (e.g., autoraising A2o from the CO), is that you tend not to actually be successful in stealing (either preflop, or autobetting the flop). This leads to problems on the big streets like having to decide between firing on 4th street UI, or checking on 4th street, but getting pushed off the hand on the river. For me, the bottom line is that I tend to raise less depending on what cards I have, and more on what I perceive as the BB's likelihood to defend (both preflop and on the flop). Where the blind is loose and passive, I wont raise with less than A9 A8 or a semidecent pair 55+ from the CO; on the other hand, if the BB is tight (TAGish even), I will raise with Q8o and other really trashy hands. I just dont think these situations tend to come up that often, which is why I'd think a good ASB is around 30%. I tend to shy away from situations where I might have a slight edge (e.g., A3o), because I dont think the increased win rate is worth it in terms of increased variance.