11r, how thee tempts me.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the question here is are there any arguments against a standard continuation bet, like 2/3 the pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

What's the purpose and plan behind this bet?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I generally dont like laying 3/1 odds with this little information on the opponents hand. It is a situation where you are likely to be called by better hands, and worse hands fold.

However, he simply called a possible steal pre-flop, so you cant put him on very much, and his flop check is very risky with a medium-strong hand with that board.

The A may well be good right now and without a draw to the nut flush he's got a very hard time calling a push.

With all of the FE and the flush draw I like the push too.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, so if you called you are probably behind. If you are called by a pair, it is something like 53-47, so you are ahead with pot odds versus folding. If your opponent folds, you pick up 140K chips.

[betgo]

What's wrong with just pushing? There is 140K in the pot and you have 360K. Even against a set or straight, you have significant outs. If you get called by a pair, it is close with pot odds.

The push looks suspicious, but it is hard for villain to know if it is a strong flush draw, a strong striaght draw, an over pair, or two pair.

You could also make a probe bet of say 40K. If villain calls, you get a chance to make your flush. If villain folds, that's great. If villain raises, push.

Calling in the SB, villain could have hit this flop hard or completely missed it. But let him make the tough decision.

[davidross]

Actually I don't think a push looks suspicious at all. Wouldn't you push here with an overpair on that board?

In this situation I think the bigger question is what do I think this guy called with in the SB? Do you have much of a read on him? I can't imagine we are ahead here, but if he's got AK or AQ he'll have a hard time calling a big bet. Would he play T9 here?

Personally I check this flop almost every time. Re evaluate after the turn.

[IMTheWalrus8]

[ QUOTE ]
Late in the rebuy. I have a tight image (If anyone is paying attention), and have only shown down big hands. No particular read on villian. he is not out of line.

Level XX (10000/20000)
Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Chief911 (421130 in chips)
Seat 2: ACETEAM55555 (532555 in chips)
Seat 3: jrdowns (329418 in chips)
Seat 4: spacejam08 (237626 in chips)
Seat 6: BREWER_RICK (529570 in chips)
Seat 7: HuntingDucks (279440 in chips)
Seat 8: SicilianDfnc (297742 in chips)
Seat 9: gparker1 (263544 in chips)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Chief911 [3d Ad]
spacejam08: folds
BREWER_RICK: folds
HuntingDucks: folds
ACETEAM55555 said, "i had a 4 with a 2 kicker"
ACETEAM55555 said, "lol"
SicilianDfnc: folds
gparker1: folds
Chief911: raises 40000 to 60000
ACETEAM55555: calls 50000
Chief911 said, "thats a hot hand"
jrdowns: folds
*** FLOP *** [9c 7d 8d]
ACETEAM55555: checks

How do you proceed from here? I'm probably 7th or 8th in overall stack.

Nick

[/ QUOTE ]

Trying to force myself to post more. Here we go ...

Curious to know: 1. how many players are left?; 2. had you been taking down pots with continuation bets? This would make a bet look standard for you; 3. had you been stealing (or looked like you were stealing) any blinds?

This looks like a 1/2 to 2/3 pot-sized bet. There's a good chance he folds, we have a nut flush draw and want a nice pot if we hit.

Kinda smells like a set for some reason. JT probably bets into the flush draw.

[Chief911]

There were 25 people left at this time.

I had not been pounding people preflop and taking pots with continuations. I had shown down monsters only recently.

Nick

[Matador225]

I bet 3/4 of the pot here. If he raises I push and if he calls and checks the flop I check behind. If he leads out on the flop I probably fold, but it depends on how much it is to call.

[IMTheWalrus8]

Just a thought ...

Is a check really that bad here? The problem with a continuation bet is that we have some tough decisions if he calls. If we bet 100K on the flop, we're left with a 260K stack and a 350K pot. And if he calls on this board, it's too likely that he's ahead. If we miss our flush on the turn, what are we going to do if he checks? How about if he bets?

360K is a good stack, and we should be able to find a better spot to put it all in. I'm just not sure how to evaluate the F/E of a continuation bet on the flop here.

For the record, I'm probably betting 100k in the heat of battle.

ummm... how exactly does that 'smell like a set' to you? His only actions were calling a raise preflop (with a very wide range) and checking the dangerous flop (with almost the exact same wide range)

[IMTheWalrus8]

[ QUOTE ]
ummm... how exactly does that 'smell like a set' to you? His only actions were calling a raise preflop (with a very wide range) and checking the dangerous flop (with almost the exact same wide range)

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I'm using the "probably not posted unless there is something tricky coming" line of thinking.

Still think a check might be correct here.