Craps

[stickman]

Good point, I would like to see that video as well.

[Double Down]

Well put Sheet. I would like to see that video too. To add a few details to that, though, you have to understand that precision shooting is far from a perfect skill and you are not so much controlling the dice as you are influencing them. What it boils down to is that on every throw, you are trying to keep the dice on the 2 axes and avoid the 2 inside and outside faces. This is difficult to do and does not occur every time. However, if this can be achieved only 1 out of 42 throws, then you are playing a break even game with the house.

Let me ask you this: Is there no amount of recorded results that could prove it? Say, if someone did this for 4 hours a day every day for a few years and showed positive results, wouldn't that be sufficient data?

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me ask you this: Is there no amount of recorded results that could prove it? Say, if someone did this for 4 hours a day every day for a few years and showed positive results, wouldn't that be sufficient data?


[/ QUOTE ]
4 hours a day every day for a week would be enough to put a fairly high confidence in the results. But since, as you say, "you are trying to keep the dice on the 2 axes and avoid the 2 inside and outside faces", a video showing this can actually be controlled would be convincing.

[Double Down]

True, a video showing this would be more concrete, but as I mentioned before, the truth is that you are merely influencing the dice and that all we are doing is ATTEMPTING to keep it on the same 2 axes, and if we were to succeed 1 out of 42 throws, it would turn craps into +EV. Now, having this happen in 1 out of 42 throws on a video, the video itself would have to show a guy throwing the dice thousands of times to show that he is succeeding in this throw 1/42 times.
Actually, the guys who I saw throw the dice were able to do it much more frequently than this, probably 1 out of 10 throws they were able to keep on the 2 axes, but you get my point.

[BlindingLaser]

I think Sheet's saying that if it can be done once intentionally, it's clearly repeatable in enough frequency after practice that you would be able to beat the game. The site I did the most reading at is: http://www.dicesetter.com/index.htm

The thing is, I didn't spot any discussion of moving up in limits, they mostly seemed to be content staying at $5 minimum tables. Aren't there people who bet black chips on the pass line? How large of a bankroll would you need to withstand the variance at a $100 pass line bet, assuming you were beating the game? It seems like very few people worldwide could even accomplish +EV shooting, much less want to do it as a job, is I guess the reason we haven't heard about it.

Is it cheating to roll the dice intending for them to stay on axis, though? Isn't that very similar to using shenanigans to put cubes that are weighted to not land on two faces into the game?

[SheetWise]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, the guys who I saw throw the dice were able to do it much more frequently than this, probably 1 out of 10 throws they were able to keep on the 2 axes, but you get my point.

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If all you're looking at is two faces eliminated in the outcome on each die, I will wager that I can do that 4 out of 9 times. The real test here is the predictable physical movement of the die that leads to the intended outcome.

[Double Down]

No, it's not cheating because as opposed to using bs dice, dice setting and throwing does not involve using some sort of device other than what is available to you at the table.

Another thing. Dice control is not as simple as to say, "If they can be intentionally controlled once then with enough practice it can be done with great consistency" because it is really one of those things that cannot be perfected. Improved upon, yes, but not perfected. Much like a freethrow in basketball, you can practice it forever but still not do it everytime. And it's a much harder thing to do than put a basketball in a hole 10 feet away. But the good news is that you only have to do it a small % of the time to turn craps +EV.

Finally, I think the reason why you don't see a lot of black chippers doing this is that at that level, it could gain heat. Playing red chip craps is enough action to beat the game, because it's not like you only have 5 bucks in action. If you are playing 3 bets at a time with $15 pass line and full odds behind, you could have almost $200 in action going at all times.

You guys will just never see the light. Free info (clue)...this stuff has already been done 30+ years ago. Hmmm...

[BlindingLaser]

If this isn't cheating though, why would anybody attract any heat? Since it isn't cheating, why hasn't anybody moved up in limits and is now crushing whatever the biggest game available is? That's where I'm still very skeptical...if there are people doing this, and the casinos want action from them, why wouldn't they build a bankroll and put the most action they can on a +EV play? (the short answer is likely that they're in fact -EV, just like everyone else)

[Double Down]

Your question was if it isn't cheating then why would it attract heat? Um, because it's still advantage play, just like counting cards. But it does not gain as much heat because of the debate as to whether or not it's for real. Depending on the joint and who's on staff, you will see the whole spectrum of beliefs, from being paranoid about it to not believing in it to not even being aware of it.
And no one is doing this at the high roller level because that WOULD gain too much heat.

I really am surprised at the people on this site for having such a strong opinion against precision shooting without enough information to form an educated opinion. Seriously, I'd think people at this website would be attracted to the possibility that craps may be beatable and would jump at the chance to learn how and see for themselves if it's for real. But the reaction to precision shooting is as if we're talking about the Martingale. If you need mathematical, recorded proof, the book Get the Edge at Craps by Scoblete has a lot of mathematical information on this subject, which comes from thousands of recorded throws of the dice. That is the only book I've read on it. My other experience was the weekend seminar, and it was enough to make me a believer.

You guys should at least read a couple books on the subject before you decide how you feel about precision shooting. Especially with the current blackjack conditions and the fact that craps is DAMN fun, the players are cooler, the dealers are cooler and more competant, it's something worth checking out.