So, I flopped the nut low

[jogumon]

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I think you're lying to yourself here. Replace 'felt' with 'hoped'.

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I was bluffing. Of coure I 'hoped' he would fold. That's what bluffing is. However, I also 'felt' that there was a good enough chance of this happening. I need him to fold 1 in 4.5 for this to break even. I 'felt' the probability of a fold was that good. I could be wrong, but I did think he was most likely on a medium PP, and I did think there was a good (enough) chance he would fold it.

[jogumon]

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Particularly in a live game, this is an excellent bluff.

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This being a live game was key to the play. I don't try this online, and I agree that if I'm on Party Poker and make this play, I get called by a PP almost all of the time. On a whole, live play is less agressive than online, agression is usually treated with more respect. After coming back form playing the 30/60 at the Bellagio for a week I sat back in the 20/40 on Party again, and immediately noticed how much more aggressive it was. The difference is absolutely amazing.

[CardSharpCook]

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9BBs, you're investing 2BBs, so he has to fold twice in 9 times.for this to be profitable or 22% of the time. I

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Replace 9 times with 11 times and 22% with 18.2% and I agree completely.

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you're right. Good catch.