fold 2 pair here?

[chopchoi]

PP $5,000 free roll. 650 left, top 50 get paid. I have an average sized stack, of about 3,800 chips. I just moved to the table and have no reads. BB has a little more than 4,000 chips. Blinds 75/150.

J9o in SB. 2 limpers, I complete, BB checks.

Flop: J,T,9, rainbow. I bet the pot, BB pushes, the limpers fold.

I put him on the following range of hands:

a set, 2 pair (JT or J9), a straight, an oesd plus a pair (89, 8T, 8J, 9Q, TQ, JQ), or maybe just a gutshot plus a pair (K9, KT or KJ), or AJ.

What do I do?

[petvan]

In that tourney I insta-push myself. I'd expect you to find junk, overpair, tptk, or maybe a gutshot and only once in a while top two, set, or the straight. Even here guys will slow play these most of the time. If this isn't one of those times, you might still have a 4 or less outs ;-)


Just my .02

P

[TheDrone]

I read the first line and immediately thought push. After reading the rest, it's still an easy push. With 650 people left in a freeroll, the donk factor is still really high. The push could mean Qx, Jx, T8, or any number of hands behind yours. And you still have four outs on that rare occasion that you are behind.

[RiverDood]

Call me a coward, but I'd fold.

Every time I've bet out with 2-pair on a very coordinated board and have encountered a push back at low stakes/freeroll, it's been from someone with a straight or flush. They're so excited they just can't hide it! I've called, only to lose a ton of chips.

Higher stakes might be a whole different story. On this one, you're still OK if you walk away from 700 chips. Fold and hope for better luck in the next few orbits.

[RiverDood]

Agreed that the donk factor is high.

But I've learned the hard way that after the first half hour, it doesn't mean people are constantly pushing with dodgy hands. It's more likely to mean that people with great hands don't bother to trap. They push their winners right away and settle for small pots.

My thinking would be that its a pretty safe bet that he is not holding a set, maybe a set of nines but still doubtful. He should raise from the BB if he had TT or JJ to protect his hand from overcards on the flop fitting into the limpers hands.

I also do not think he has KQ (may have raised pre-flop also) since he would have nothing to fear with the nut straight and would not be interested in scaring you away since your pot sized bet indicated that the flop helped you and you may be willing to commit more money to this pot. That leaves either J10 in which case he is afraid of a straight draw busting him, or 87 in which case he would be afraid of a higher straight busting him.

If you think he has any of these hands, you cannot call. You only have four outs, one of which may already be in his hand, and you are not getting the pot odds to call a four-outer.

I would lay this hand down for two reasons. For me, in tournaments, I like to get all my money in when I have a bit more confidence that I can win. Here, you are really gambling that he is shoving all in with a complete bluff or an open ended straight draw. Secondly, of all the hands I discussed, he is most likely to have 87. He is not afraid to get all him money in because he has a made hand, but he really would like you to go away. The ass end of a straight is always hard to play as more cards out. He thinking is probably "I probably have a winning hand, but this guy is showing strength and I don't want to run into any more difficult decisions on fourth and fifth streets, so I'm just moving all in.

Lay the hand down. There is no embarrasment in laying down two pair on a board so well connected. As Doyle, says, there is no reason to go broke in an unraised pot(before the flop)!!!

[TheDrone]

[ QUOTE ]
As Doyle, says, there is no reason to go broke in an unraised pot(before the flop)!!!

[/ QUOTE ]
I think Doyle also said, "Why the hell are you playing a freeroll if you are not willing to get your chips in on a flopped two pair?" [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]