AKs - All in on a draw...

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
hmm...

if anyone has caught any piece of that board, i'm about a coin flip, so i'm looking for maximum fold equity. i figure if anyone has anything they might try to take a stab at it, and then i'll let them know I have AA/KK and they can fold now.

[/ QUOTE ]

would you play AA or KK in this fashion? Soah a little while ago referenced harmony, or something like that. it might not have been soah, but it was someone who is very clear in their posts. in any case your action doesn't seem harminous. which is ok against a revolving door of opponents.

But your check raise really, really seems transparent. But then again it is easy for me to say that "looking" at your hand.

[ QUOTE ]

but if i lead out, how do i make money? if some one raises me they'll probably be pot committed, and it'l probaly be a coin flip

[/ QUOTE ]

If you lead out for like half pot, for example, you could get raised by a jack; a lower spade draw; perhaps some weird midpair/underpair/whatever they limped/called pf with. All these hands (should) fold to the push, (assuming they have the stack; only button would be PCed to calling you, but most likely he would've moved in over your raise) so you have a LOT of folding equity.
[ QUOTE ]

even worse what if i get flat called and the turn blanks? we'll have about one last pot-sized all in bet left, which is the worst scenario when you are drawing I reckon

[/ QUOTE ]

What could they flat call your bet with? if it is osmeone who acts right after you I'm more inclined to believe ace high is best and push.

if they acted last (such as button) I'd check and fold if I didn't get odds and call if I did. (I'm more likely to believe they have a made hand)

But her'es my situation. You raised preflop. 55 in pot, 4 opponents. You lead out for 30. stacks of players after preflop call: (roughly)
CO - 245
UTG - 130
UTG+1 - 195
Button - 85

It boils down to if button gets involved all the money goes in on the turn so it doesn't matter. UTG is a little shadier becuase he'll have 100 and there wil be ~100 in the pot. So there's your dreaded situation.
But if UTG+1 or CO get involved you play poker on the turn.

Also note if they reraise you, you have tremendous fold equity on the flop.

EDIT: Another note I wanted to attach is that if the flop is checked around, and a blank rolls on the turn, the pot is no longer yours. What I mean by that is someone may decide their small pair is good, or midpair, etc etc. and either make a bet you cant call / make you pay to draw for the river (that perhaps aggression on the flop would cover the turn)

I feel very strongly if you raise AKs out of hte blinds with that many limpers you should make a play for the pot once you've flopped a strong draw.

[jimdmcevoy]

[ QUOTE ]
Also note if they reraise you, you have tremendous fold equity on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is probably the key thing i disagree with

i may be wrong but it seems these guys never raise half their stack and then fold for the other half

[ QUOTE ]
But if UTG+1 or CO get involved you play poker on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not the kind of poker i like playing [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[zaxx19]

if anyone has caught any piece of that board, i'm about a coin flip..

How do you figure that??

This thinking is what makes baby pairs so goddamn profitbale.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Also note if they reraise you, you have tremendous fold equity on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]



this is probably the key thing i disagree with

i may be wrong but it seems these guys never raise half their stack and then fold for the other half

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, then more important question. Same scenario. But you have AA. You lead 30.(into 55ish) Big stack raises, lets say 100 straight. (so 70 into a pot of 85) What's your action?

More important question.

What is his hand range?

The all important segway.

You have AKs.

Same thing happens. But the hand range is the same.

What's your action?

[jimdmcevoy]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, then more important question. Same scenario. But you have AA. You lead 30.(into 55ish) Big stack raises, lets say 100 straight. (so 70 into a pot of 85) What's your action?

[/ QUOTE ]

just so we're on the same page here, that's a raise of 70 into a pot of 115 yeah?

anyways with AA i seriously consider folding as i put him on a set, flush draw, or AJ, outside chance of 64 KJ QJ

but i'm not sure, if i don't fold i call and push a non-spade turn and check a spade turn

with my AKs I go all in on the flop

[ QUOTE ]
segway

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't know what that word means

anyway I am well aware that my play is predictable, and i've always had a little bit of worry in the back of my mind that people will catch on, but so far no one seems too

[swolfe]

hey, thanks for hijacking my thread, jim!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

i'm kidding...some great thoughts from bobbo. this is something i've been working on...playing my big draws more aggressively. i'm going to post a couple more of these kinds of hands tonight.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
hey, thanks for hijacking my thread, jim!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

i'm kidding...some great thoughts from bobbo. this is something i've been working on...playing my big draws more aggressively. i'm going to post a couple more of these kinds of hands tonight.

[/ QUOTE ]

woooo thanks that you think this is a good hijak, i was starting to think i was very, very wrong (and I was *just* about to be convinced checkraising is better =) )

i'll look at PT for some big draws oop, maybe try to find some fun hands.

[jimdmcevoy]

[ QUOTE ]
hey, thanks for hijacking my thread, jim!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

i'm kidding...some great thoughts from bobbo. this is something i've been working on...playing my big draws more aggressively. i'm going to post a couple more of these kinds of hands tonight.

[/ QUOTE ]

srry bout that [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I was gonna post it myself, but then I saw this thread and thought 'well my hand is just like this, guess everyone will just say yah CR-all in is good just like they did to you'

but bobbo is convincing me otherwise, i dunno now

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ok, then more important question. Same scenario. But you have AA. You lead 30.(into 55ish) Big stack raises, lets say 100 straight. (so 70 into a pot of 85) What's your action?

[/ QUOTE ]

just so we're on the same page here, that's a raise of 70 into a pot of 115 yeah?

[/ QUOTE ]


oops, i must've discounted that last 30... thanks
[ QUOTE ]

anyways with AA i seriously consider folding as i put him on a set, flush draw, or AJ, outside chance of 64 KJ QJ

but i'm not sure, if i don't fold i call and push a non-spade turn and check a spade turn

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, it's tough because he really puts you in an awful spot (whether the flop raise is a set, top pair, a weird straight draw/midpair, or flush draw) because you know if he wants to play for his stack (set or two pair) he will on the turn, whereas if he wants a free card (top pair for pot management or draw for free river) he will check behind and use position. so leading out, calling, and checking turn loses the max and loses the most. (further compounding it is villain may turn semibluff with flush draw making you fold overpair, or possibly checking with set inducing a bluff from you. or when you get to river you may check/call to get bluff from a busted draw or bet/fold yourself so top pair pays you off)

My standard line though, is as you say, call flop raise and reevaluate the turn. If it's a blank and villain is really aggressive with draws I'll push.

but the problem is if villain has top pair and you check turn he could easily move you off your hand, so calling the flop and looking for a blank even though villain may or may not be drawing is dicey.

also, reraising all in with those deepish stacks will allow him to dump top pair, insta call with a set, and price him out of a draw. (which he may or may not gamble with; only hand which i could see him calling with which you'd want would be like NFD where he thinks ace outs are clean, but are in fact not) so pushing isn't good.

Alot of players though would interpret a push as a big pair at SSNL, even though (imo) it clearly is not the best move.

[ QUOTE ]

with my AKs I go all in on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, which i guess as we break it down, isn't really what a bigpair *would* do [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
segway
i don't know what that word means

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry - segway = the link to your hand (so, why I asked about your move with AA - how it correlates with Aks)

[ QUOTE ]

anyway I am well aware that my play is predictable, and i've always had a little bit of worry in the back of my mind that people will catch on, but so far no one seems too

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, I wouldn't worry about mixiing it up, either. the opponents i know are decent and probably note me / poker tracker me i just dont bother playing big pots with. (hmm, easier said then done) this is definately i need to address when i move up.

[BobboFitos]

Oh, forgot one key idea:

if you follow up with AK [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and villain raises - we both put villain on [ QUOTE ]


as i put him on a set, flush draw, or AJ, outside chance of 64 KJ QJ

[/ QUOTE ]

since we have the good spades, (A, K, J accounted for) any flush draw would be of the small suited connector variety. probably would raise jacks preflop so it would be bottom or mid set. which we can assume he never folds here. AJ / any jack for that matter / straight draw

I said in the preceeding post if we had AA and pushed, the only thing that could reasonably call us would be a NFD wanting to gamble (impossible, as we have the trump card) so a set. since villain would raise flop with a lot more hands then just a set, i really really really feel 3betting with this massive draw has TREMENDOUS folding equity (even though you said it didn't :P )