Flopped set, Right play?

usmfan · #1 07-07-2005, 12:37 PM

Empire 1500 Guaranteed, $25 entry with R&A

Hero (t3470)
MP2 (t625)
MP3 (t3305)
CO (t2860)
Button (t510)
SB (t4128)
BB (t4410)
UTG (t4467)
UTG+1 (t5725)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero calls t50, MP2 calls t50, MP3 calls t50, 1 fold, Button calls t50, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t300) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets t50, Hero raises to t200, MP2 folds, MP3 calls t200, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls t150.

Turn: (t900) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets t50, Hero raises to t700, MP3 folds, BB calls t650.

River: (t2300) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players) Hero bets t1000

Is there any point to betting here? Is this a good value bet on the river?

kenstall · #2 07-07-2005, 12:46 PM

2300 in the pot at the river. BB has min bet and called on flop and river, I'd put him on a small A with the flush draw. 2 pair is a possibility but I think he would've re-raised at some point. You may want to bet a little less (say 600) to guarantee a call from a small A.

Overall it looks good.

usmfan · #3 07-07-2005, 01:27 PM

My problem is that the only thing that I see calling the river bet is AQ. I would have expected a raise PF with AQ even from the BB. I don't see A7 cold calling the flop and turn bets.

Scooterdoo · #4 07-07-2005, 02:31 PM

Interesting hand. What could he have? We can probably rule out QQ because of the preflop action. 77 is possible, but less likely given the river. One hand you really hate to see is A7 but we can probably rule that out given the call of your bet on the flop -- although he might have viewed the odds to call as pretty favorable. Q7 is very possible as is 47 (less likely because you have the two 4's, but still very possible), and of course these would be really bad for you. Another possibility would be Q4 which would be great. AQ is good but I doubt it if he limps preflop with it, it is possible though. KQ or QJ are possible, although he is a very loose caller if he has either of these. A lone 7 is unlikely because he wouldn't be staying for your two bets. He could have 56 or two clubs too, so the likely hands in my opinion after the river are a broken straight or flush draw, Q7, 47, 77 or Q4. If you bet on the river, you don't get anything out of the broken draws, you lose to the Q7/77/74 and you probably don't get money from Q4. You also shouldn't get money from KQ or QJ if he was stupid enough to have these (although it's possible if he was on a flush draw too).

This is a classic case of mostly hands that beat you calling your bet.

usmfan · #5 07-07-2005, 03:10 PM

Exactly. I was struggling with whether to value bet this or not. Considering the donks normally in these tourneys, I figured a value bet was in order. Villain went over the top of me and I quickly called.
In making the bet, I had pretty much ruled out AQ, QQ & 77. I was a little scared of 77 but figured that he would have come back over me on the turn due to the 2 clubs on the board. Plus, the second 7 on the river made that very unlikely.

Villain flipped over 47 for the flopped 2 pair and rivered boat. I will never put my opponent on the remaining 4. After my river bet, I deemed myself pot committed and called expecting to see Q7.

I think this is a case for not betting the river since nobody calls unless they beat you.

joeboe2001 · #6 07-07-2005, 03:34 PM

It was kind of gutsy (or foolish) of him to call your river bet. You did what you could!

Mez · #7 07-07-2005, 03:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Exactly. I was struggling with whether to value bet this or not. Considering the donks normally in these tourneys, I figured a value bet was in order.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed with that. And I do think that if you check the river, too often you'll be letting your opponent off the hook. Kinda surprising that he slow played bottom two the entire way, two pair is tough to put him on. cold decked at the end.

locutus2002 · #8 07-07-2005, 03:45 PM

I think you're right. The most likely holding for villain is 2 pr with sevens++. I think you can check the river and hope he value bets.

Scooterdoo · #9 07-07-2005, 03:54 PM

What do you mean it was foolish? He almost certainly had the best hand. The only hands that beat him are QQ, AA, Q7 and A7. Most players would not limp from early position with the first 3 and your betting pattern on the flop does not fit A7 although I guess it's possible you could be making a play at the pot. So it looks like you have a broken flush draw, a pair of 4's, some two pair combo or maybe A7, but unlikely. You could argue not to raise all-in, but at the minimum you must call if your're him. Please explain why not?

usmfan · #10 07-07-2005, 04:08 PM

I don't fault his river bet. I'm likely losing all my stack anytime its boat vs boat. I think his realy mistake was the minimum bets he made on the flop and turn. I might even donkbet the river for fear of being checked through if I were him.

Other notes:
I can't induce a bluff bet here on the river as Villain was the BB.
I suppose its possible he thought that I had limped AA or QQ as this table was a little bit passive. However, if he thinks that his flop and turn calls were atrocious. Calling nearly pot size bets when he only has 4 outs.