Fish love to wait till the turn to push their sets

#1 12-06-2005, 05:47 AM

I've been seeing this in hand chat and suddenly realized that I usually wait until the turn to push my set and am wondering what the preferred play is.

Here is an example: (long time ago, no reads)
Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.75.
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO (poster) checks, Button raises, 2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, CO folds, Button folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

River: (14.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks.

Yes, I'm a big girly on the river and have a hard time betting without the nuts, probably and irrational fear of the river c/r...

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

So what is the better line? Raise the flop? Doesn't that usually lead to the villian going into call down mode losing a BB?

Actually, looking for this example I found several where I didn't wait until the turn to get aggressive and still won so yea me!

#2 12-06-2005, 05:57 AM

raise flop bet river

#3 12-06-2005, 06:08 AM

Yes, yes, but I was hoping for a few more descriptive passages into why this is the better play.

#4 12-06-2005, 06:14 AM

i raise the flop because anyone with a K isnt folding anyway, and you want to make a gutshot pay.

you might even get lucky and go to war with AA, AK or 2 pair

i bet the river because it is the easiest value bet ever posted in the history of 2+2. in face i would even suggest that in the next 10 years of this forums existence there will never be an easier value bet posted.

you have a set. noone has shown aggression. no draws have hit.

crovax4444 · #5 12-06-2005, 06:16 AM

agreed on both raising the flop and river

Seriously, are we kidding about the river? It's not as if the King paired or anything, we're talking about a hand that your gonna win at least 95% of the time, so raise that sucker

Crovax

MadMat · #6 12-06-2005, 06:22 AM

Is the flop slowplay that really bad in this case? I know a set should usually be played fast and hard, but we've got an extremely safe looking board, and 3 players to act behind us, is going for overcalls that bad in this particular case?

Mat

#7 12-06-2005, 06:25 AM

I agree on the flop call. This lead to a few overcalls and if you would have raised, you may have lost a sb or two [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] and really, its not a scary looking board at all. Turn looks fine but really, checking the river!!!!!! I would hit the raise button so fast...

Shillx · #8 12-06-2005, 06:29 AM

Calling the flop (with a variety of hands) is best done in limped pots. There are essentially 3 reasons for this:

1) People aren't getting good odds to draw so it becomes less critical to raise. Not a lot of hands can call correctly getting 5:1 while all kinds of stuff should call getting 9:1. You need to prevent them from drawing with good odds hense you raise in raised pots.

2) You are going to be raising hands like 1 pair a lot in raised pots for the reason I describe. So it looks natual for you to raise with big hands like sets as well. You aren't going to call on this flop with something like KQ, so why would you with three 5's? A good player will pick up on what you are doing instantly. While it might not be important now, you should start thinking about these types of things if you intend to move up the ranks.

3) You are confident that the PFR will raise the flop and allow you to 3-bet. So in this case you would call, hope for a raise and then reraise. Don't do this when you have no reads.

Say I have T8s in the BB. There are 2 limpers and the SB completes. I check. The flop is T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

If the SB bets out, you can make a good argument for just calling (and reraise should someone raise). Now if the SB raised preflop, I would most certainly raise here to either raise my equity or force gutshots into making bad calls. By calling I don't get either of those since they are getting proper odds to call. Notice how I don't care if they call getting 6:1 because they are taking the worst of it.

Brad

Edit - It is probably never correct to just call on the flop with a set when the pot is > 10 SB. Raise this one up on 3rd street.

#9 12-06-2005, 06:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is the flop slowplay that really bad in this case?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, it is a small difference in ev imo

mackthefork · #10 12-06-2005, 07:00 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I'm a big girly on the river and have a hard time betting without the nuts, probably and irrational fear of the river c/r...

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a river problem, but that is abysmal, please never check closing the action on this board with a set ever again, you're ahead at least 95% of the time here.

Mack