$55 bubble play

[DarrenX]

Reads- SoloEagle hasn't been bullying... BB has been noticably tight.

***** Hand History for Game 2774126883 *****
400/800 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 16060713) - Sun Sep 25 16:50:19 EDT 2005
Table Table 16926 (Real Money) -- Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: SoloEagle786 (6185)
Seat 5: REDFISH1222 (575)
Seat 7: setta (1755)
Seat 9: DarrenX (1485)
SoloEagle786 posts small blind (200)
REDFISH1222 posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to DarrenX [ 8c, As ]
setta folds.
DarrenX...

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
BB has been noticably tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

so noticably tight that he might be absent?

if not, i think this is a fold. if the SB folds, you get a-i against a random hand with 200 extra chips in there. that's nice, but it's nothing worth bubbling for, and even if you knew that SB was folding, you're not that psyched about playing a 60-40 shot (i'm guessing) and risking becoming short. and even busting shorty doesn't give you great odds of getting 1st. i think this is a time to play for 3rd. muck and hope the SB does not give a walk (i'd be more worried about this if SB had been bullying).

If you're away it'll fold hands where you're allin in the blind?

EDIT: I misread the blinds I see

[DarrenX]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BB has been noticably tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

so noticably tight that he might be absent?

if not, i think this is a fold. if the SB folds, you get a-i against a random hand with 200 extra chips in there. that's nice, but it's nothing worth bubbling for, and even if you knew that SB was folding, you're not that psyched about playing a 60-40 shot (i'm guessing) and risking becoming short. and even busting shorty doesn't give you great odds of getting 1st. i think this is a time to play for 3rd. muck and hope the SB does not give a walk (i'd be more worried about this if SB had been bullying).

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was looking for, thanks. I'd been getting a lot of 3rds lately, and was wondering if it was because I wasn't taking advantage in situtations like this.

[pooh74]

hmmm..I might get flamed, but I like a call here sometimes. If SB pushes, you've taken away 80% of BB's stack when/if he folds (you're folding too) which is mission accomplished IMO. If SB calls and BB pushes, you can cooperate. If SB folds then you're HU with a good hand against his any 2.

flame away

[DarrenX]

[ QUOTE ]
hmmm..I might get flamed, but I like a call here sometimes. If SB pushes, you've taken away 80% of BB's stack when/if he folds (you're folding too) which is mission accomplished IMO. If SB calls and BB pushes, you can cooperate. If SB folds then you're HU with a good hand against his any 2.

flame away

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I like it. I came THIS CLOSE to limping, but figured it was weak/tight- however your explanation makes sense... The "pooh", eh? Has an interesting ring, anyway...

[pineapple888]

Interesting and sophisticated idea.

Maybe too sophisticated.

There are many scenarios, but the problem is that, if you fold or lose, you are down to $1085 or $910, with $600 in blinds coming your way.

I just see no reason to get involved here with a borderline hand, for the reasons stated well by an earlier poster.

If I was one of the other two stacks besides the big one and I saw you put any money in the pot, I'd be jumping for glee.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting and sophisticated idea.

Maybe too sophisticated.

There are many scenarios, but the problem is that, if you fold or lose, you are down to $1050 or $925, with $600 in blinds coming your way.

I just see no reason to get involved here with a borderline hand, for the reasons stated well by an earlier poster.

If I was one of the other two stacks besides the big one and I saw you put any money in the pot, I'd be jumping for glee.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's only one big stack here...you're the button.

I look at it this way, you're at around a 3-1 chip ratio with BB before posting, if he folds bc SB pushes over your call, you become a 10-1 ratio over BB, even though you lost 1/3 of your chips.

It comes down to this basically:

Play for better chance at 2nd also gives you a higher chance of 4th or,

Play for a very high probability of 3rd.

Because 1st is highly remote here, I am opting for the high chance of 3rd. Calling here assures that. In fact, if SB knows what he is doing, he should raise me, but I really don't mind. BB has 125 and is all in next hand and Ill call then too...Unless BB calls the raise, then I call too (even if he wins, I can win the side pot and stay alive)

[pineapple888]

Well, I'm too slow to figure out all the ramifications of your strategy.

For my approach, let's assume that if you fold, SB puts BB all-in (with two random hands) and that first place is out of reach for hero.

Half the time, you are guaranteed third and have a good shot at second.

Half the time, you are the middle one of three medium stacks, and have a 2/3 chance of ITM (with a good shot at second).

So, folding gives you 85% ITM, maybe 40% of those are seconds, say overall 35% second, 50% third, 15% OOTM.

So, if you can argue that your strategy is better than that (with A8, remember), I'll be convinced.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I'm too slow to figure out all the ramifications of your strategy.

For my approach, let's assume that if you fold, SB puts BB all-in (with two random hands) and that first place is out of reach for hero.

Half the time, you are guaranteed third and have a good shot at second.

Half the time, you are the middle one of three medium stacks, and have a 2/3 chance of ITM (with a good shot at second).

So, folding gives you 85% ITM, maybe 40% of those are seconds, say overall 35% second, 50% third, 15% OOTM.

So, if you can argue that your strategy is better than that (with A8, remember), I'll be convinced.

[/ QUOTE ]

your assumption that SB puts BB all-in is so far off that I didnt even bother to read the rest.

FWIW, if I were SB here and it was folded to me, Id fold most hands and push the next two...thats a lot more chips...actually twice as much.