Closing a gap in a pick league...

[UncleRemus]

Alright, so I'm a pretty grim 4 games back in a pick league. There's another person 3 games ahead of me, and one person tied with me. I'd be 1 game back if not for making the ultimate -EV move of getting drunk and passing out on a saturday night that I put off making my picks, but we won't go there . . .

Annnnyway, the 2 I trail have gone with vegas on EVERY game to date this season (only difference between them was on a pickem game), and now I've gotta take some real risks and try to make up some ground -- and this seems like a pretty good week to do so. I plan to go against the lines on 3 games, praying to pick up a game or three...

Thinking about going with:

Tennesee, at Oakland
Volek has performed fine in McNair's absence, and, while it was against two teams with terrible pass D (Indy and KC), Oakland isn't exactly stellar, giving up over 225 yards and almost two touchdowns a game in the air. I look for him to be even more in tune with his great recievers, and he should hopefully put Oakland away with or without Chris Brown playing a full game.
Arizona, hosting St Louis
3 of their 4 wins have been at home, where they do seem to play much better. St Louis, on the other hand, has only won 2 of their 5 road games. Is this enough to take 'zona?
Houston, hosting Chicago
I have no idea what's going to happen here...Feel like this one could easily go either way, and figure that's enough to take the Houston side and hope to pick up ground.

Any comments on taking these three? Should I consider adding Detroit or someone else as a fourth upset to try and pick up more ground / stop some of the bleeding if my other 3 don't go as planned? Any of these games I should replace?

I realize this is a different kind of question, and it may be a little late to pick up this kind of ground, but any helps appreciated.

Thanks,
Remus