What's Wrong With This Statement?

David Sklansky · #1 10-09-2004, 01:13 AM

The following highly contrived example illustrates an important principle.

The situation is that there is $40 in the pot in a 10-20 game. You have 32 offsuit. The flop is JJJ. You know for sure that if you bet you will be called only by pocket pairs, fours or higher.

You then say to yourself the following. "It is correct for me to bet $10 all in, if there is a greater than 20% chance I will steal the pot and incorrect if the chances are smaller than 20%."

The above quote is wrong. The correct number is not 20%. It is a bit higher or lower. Which is it and why?

Matt Flynn · #2 10-09-2004, 01:21 AM

it's slightly less than 20% because you can still tie if the runner-runner beats the opponent's pocket pair.

reubenf · #3 10-09-2004, 01:30 AM

It's a bit lower. If called, you can split the pot if the opponent has to play the board as well (The turn and river pair and beat the opponent's pair or if J-x comes with x beating the opponent's pair).

Danielih · #4 10-09-2004, 07:12 AM

The number is less than 20% because there are a few situations which result in a split pot. Either the board can have a

card ranked higher than the opponents PP followed by the case jack

the case jack followed by a card higher than the opponents PP

card higher than opponents PP, same card higher than the opponents PP

garyc8 · #5 10-09-2004, 07:13 AM

It is slightly lower than 20%. Suppose you are called by a player holding 55. Turn J, River A; Or running 8's; etc. You split the pot.

Faro · #6 10-09-2004, 01:10 PM

There are from 1 to 4 players in the pot. Chances for other players to have pairs greater than 3s is about 3.5 percent per player. With three other players this is about 15 percent and less for fewer players.

6471849653 · #7 10-09-2004, 01:30 PM

He says he will get called only by pocket pairs, fours or higher. That's not true; there's a good chance he will get called with up to any two cards.

Andy B · #8 10-09-2004, 01:32 PM

He doesn't call with a Jack in his hand?

Andy B · #9 10-09-2004, 01:34 PM

If Sklansky says you know something for sure, you know it for sure.

BarronVangorToth · #10 10-09-2004, 03:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If Sklansky says you know something for sure, you know it for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's right; don't question it.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com