Interesting Turn Decision With JJ Overpair

[ninjaunderwear]

What kinds of hands do we put SB on after he calls pre-flop? How does his call on the flop narrow this range? And how is this range further reduced after SB check-raises the turn? If I call the raise on the turn, what is my plan for the river unimproved?

When I get check-raised on the turn, am I likely to be ahead of any hands that SB possibly holds?

My stats up until that point in the session are 15.56/7.78/1.83 after 90 hands. I have attempted to steal 1 out of 7 times, but folded from the CO on the turn after both blinds played along. It is unlikely that SB put me on a steal attempt from MP2.

Also, in the hands I had previously logged before this hand, SB had check-raised twice in 575 hands, once on the turn and once on the river.

[McGahee]

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If we know that he'll bet the river if we call, but he'll fold if we make it three bets, then it's clearly not correct to 3bet.

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Depends on what he has Wookie. I'm pretty sure you've raised turn donkbets with a decent pair against somebody who you think might be drawing, with the intention of checking the river behind. This is just a glorified version of that. Admittadly his C/R makes it a little more scary, but it's still a 'Ahead or WB' situation that doesn't require a showdown; and in any case we're still getting to showdown much more often than everyone seems to be indicating.

[McGahee]

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I don't really see why this is really that close. The turn is really really obvious. We're betting for value, because we have the best hand a good amount of the time, and we are betting because we cannot afford to give a free card. How can anyone suggest checking this when villain could hold any overcard?

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Yeah the initial turn decision is a fairly easy bet and I'm suprised there's much debate about it.

[MrWookie47]

My post was kind of nit-ish, but if we know he'll fold to the 3bet (i.e., he wasn't drawing), then it's clearly not correct to 3bet. If we know for sure he's drawing, then it's clearly correct to 3bet. However, I don't think he's drawing here all that often. There's not much that a player that tight would be drawing with.

[McGahee]

I guess that's where we disagree. If we're ahead it's because he's drawing. He's not making this play with air.

the c/r indicates some sort of strength.. enough to assume that he'll call or raise the 3bet IMO.

[MrWookie47]

My post was in response to nooob, who sounded like he was enthusiastic about our opponent folding. We definitely don't want him to fold here. Well, more properly, if he folds, it was almost certainly with a hand we didn't really want him to fold. We'd rather get an extra bet on the river.

Actually, if we knew for certain that he would be the river here, it's ok to call if he's drawing. He'll put in that last bluff for us, giving us the same EV whether he hits or misses.

Here's the thing, if we 3bet, we have to fold to a cap. This not only means we're folding as the pot gets larger, which is something we should tend to avoid doing, but we also agree to forfeit our outs. In this case, we have our two J outs, and the 9's are worth something. I don't know how many times he'll call with A9 or K9 (he's quite tight) compared to 55 or 66. If I'm sure I'm going to put in two more bets, and I'm considering raising and folding or calling down, I want to get something in exchange for my raise that would justify giving up my outs. That something in spots like this is the chance he'll fold a better hand. In this case, that chance is virtually zero. I prefer to call down.

Grunch:

You have to bet here. You can't fear a nine. If he raises you can just call down. Even then you will see a smaller two pair fairly often.

bets

So, do we get to find out what happened next? Did he have the 9, or didn't he? Was villian trying to pull a fast one?

Tune in next week for... As The Cards Fall...