AQ vs tag, river bluff?

ReadyEddie · #1 11-30-2005, 08:44 PM

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (9 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
5 folds, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets, CO calls.

Final Pot: 6.75 BB.

villain is a 16/10 tag.

jt1 · #2 11-30-2005, 08:48 PM

i'm not sure what a tag has that you beat. AT will fold the flop. a small pp would bet the river. AK would cap preflop.

so i'm guessing this tag is a bit weak. I'd just check it through, expecting to see QT or AK.

jt1 · #3 11-30-2005, 08:53 PM

btw, you shouldn't be betting this as a bluff. if you're going to bet it, it's for value.

also, i forgot to consider position. your relative positions make AT a lot more likely. I think this is a razor thin value bet. I can't imagine a pair not betting this river. And i think villian will have AT & KQ a bit more often then AK

pokernicus · #4 11-30-2005, 08:53 PM

I can't imagine you'll get a better hand to fold by betting this river (especially since your turn check through screams weakness), so I don't try to bluff at this pot.

W. Deranged · #5 11-30-2005, 09:00 PM

The only point of this bet would be to fold exactly AK, as villain is not folding a pair on that ragged a board. In a pot of less than 7 bets, villain does not: a) have AK; and b) intend to fold AK often enough to make the play even close to worthwhile.

jt1 · #6 11-30-2005, 09:02 PM

"The only point of this bet would be to fold exactly AK"

What about getting AT or KQ to call?

W. Deranged · #7 11-30-2005, 09:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
"The only point of this bet would be to fold exactly AK"

What about getting AT or KQ to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very unlikely you're getting a call from K high considering you three-bet pre-flop. AT may very rarely call, but that's only one hand, and, again, not enough of a consideration to make betting correct.

jt1 · #8 11-30-2005, 09:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"The only point of this bet would be to fold exactly AK"

What about getting AT or KQ to call?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's very unlikely you're getting a call from K high considering you three-bet pre-flop. AT may very rarely call, but that's only one hand, and, again, not enough of a consideration to make betting correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you're considering everything here. First off, villian played his hand poorly no what he has. It's not a terrible line only if he has exactly ATo. A pp should bet so he probably doesn't have that. AK would cap so he probably doesn't have that. Honestly, AT and KQ make the most sense. AK makes more sense than a pair. Statisically, villian has hero beat here 42/66 times, all else being equal. However, I, personally, think that the 24 possible combos of AT & KQ are more likely than the 42 combos of AK and a pair. So after further study,

I think a value bet is extremely thin if not -ev.

W. Deranged · #9 11-30-2005, 09:25 PM

JT,

1. Often opponents will not bet a pair here, because many opponents think the sole point of the river is to induce bluffs and don't like value-betting.

2. You need to severely discount AT and KQ in your range because very often those hands will not call a river bet.

It's not what percentage of hands we're beating that's important. It's the percentage of hands we're beating when we get called.

jt1 · #10 11-30-2005, 09:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
JT,

1. Often opponents will not bet a pair here, because many opponents think the sole point of the river is to induce bluffs and don't like value-betting.

2. You need to severely discount AT and KQ in your range because very often those hands will not call a river bet.

It's not what percentage of hands we're beating that's important. It's the percentage of hands we're beating when we get called.

[/ QUOTE ]

As usual, you make excellent points. I do think, however, that AT will always call a river bet and KQ, sometimes.

As for a pair not betting after the turn got checked through, that's just crazy. I no longer play full ring, but my lord man, what the heck.