What is your move here?

[esbesb]

What is your move here?

NL online $30 buy-in tournament. 179 players entered, down to 23. Top 20 pay, but real money starts at about #5.

Blinds are 200/400 with 50 ante, so each pot starts off with 1100.

I have a pretty healthy stack of 9000+, which is good enough for about 6th of the remaining 23 players. "Bigstack" is the only other player at the table who has me covered, and he is directly to my right.

I am on the button with AKo. It is folded around to big stack in the CO who puts in a min-raise to 800. He has been min-raising from the CO at least every other orbit and usually collecting the blinds without a fight. I have both blinds well-covered.

Your move? Why?

I'll hold off on my thinking or results so as not to prejudice the responses.

Thanks.

[betgo]

Push. It is a big overbet, but you have a hand you want to go allin with and you are playing a big stack, who you want to take allin if you are going to play. The only thing you are worried about is KK or AA, which seems unlikely with the standard late position raise.

If I didn't push, I would probably flat call to avoid getting overcommitted against the big stack. If an ace or king hits, your opponent will probably bet the flop, and you may want to flat call him, and see if he bets again on the turn.

[fnord_too]

I raise to 2400, fold to a push, and proceed with caution if he calls. You know he is likely just trying to pick up the blinds, an when a stack that can really hurt him reraises, he should lay down most hands.

2400 may be too light of a raise, since that gives him 43:16 odds on his call. I'm not crazy about the idea of raising more though, 2400 says you have enough of a hand to challenge the only person at the table who can knock you out. Without the ante's 2400 would be my standard reraise here, maybe 3k is better with the antes.

[Superfluous Man]

I'd raise it to about T2000. If he's on a pure steal, you'll often win without a fight. If he pops you back for all your chips, you can fold because you're usually a coinflip (or worse) away from elimination, and your stack is big enough to find a better place to double up. This is why I don't really like a push here; you're not desperate to double up, and you can afford to see a flop with position.

Also, by not pushing, you entice AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, etc to call when they are out of position with the worst of it. An ace or a king on the flop often means you'll double up, and you can get away from it if the flop is something disgusting.

Then again, I don't post much, and I've been playing too weak-tight lately; I guess we'll see what others say.

Edit: In hindsight, T2000 is probably too small, as it gives the dude better than 3:1 on his call. I should really drink some coffee before I try to do math in my head.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise to 2400, fold to a push, and proceed with caution if he calls. You know he is likely just trying to pick up the blinds, an when a stack that can really hurt him reraises, he should lay down most hands.

2400 may be too light of a raise, since that gives him 43:16 odds on his call. I'm not crazy about the idea of raising more though, 2400 says you have enough of a hand to challenge the only person at the table who can knock you out. Without the ante's 2400 would be my standard reraise here, maybe 3k is better with the antes.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks, fnord...you just saved me 5 minutes of typing. 100% agree with this analysis.

[Synth]

I'd push.

However i'm an aggressive player that will make a play like this if my opponent has been consistantly raising on the CO.


- Synth

[Eder]

Dunno if I want tangle hard with the big stack...I would call and get agressive with a favorable flop...if you miss go back to making the middle stacks lives miserable...more folding equity there and probably much safer since your stack wont be in peril. Blinds are still low so save the push till the game becomes the inevitable all in fest....you cant win the tourney here,but you certainly can lose it etc etc blah blah...jmo

[Vuron00]

I think fnord's advice is right on.

The only things that I'd like to know is by how much did he have you covered and is he one of the players likely to call small raises with a huge stack to try to knock out players.

If you do get called, definately don't overplay the hand and be prepared to lay it down if you have to.

[esbesb]

Fnord and Sossman and the others who agree with Fnord and Sossman are right.

I was 95% sure I had him beat. I was 95% sure that if he had anything other than AA or KK (or possibly QQ) that he would lay down.

What I didn't consider (because I was so sure I had him beat, etc.) was the consequences of if I went all in and was wrong. So I took too big of a risk to win a 1900 pot and way overbet by going all in. He had AA and busted me out.

I should have raised to 3000 and folded to a reraise. Got too excited and confident in my read that I jeopardized the great spot I was in . . . . live and learn.

[The4thFilm]

You had the wrong cards at the wrong time, it happens.