Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Do me one favor go back and separate a block of 5k hands where you won less than 53% of your showdowns and still was beating the the game, then we will talk more.
Op is beating the game when he wins 56% of showdowns but is loosing at 51%. My stats says that 53% breakeven 55% I'm a 2bb/100 hands. Granted I may have leaks elsewhere.

[/ QUOTE ]
After 100K+ my WSD%/W$SD% = 32.82/50.78 - with a solid winrate. I think your vastly overestimating the length of time that it takes these stats to converge into something so meaningful that it's the only thing we need to look at to make determinations about a player's winrate.

Your leak is this: you are taking a TON of hands to the river and folding then. While your WTSD is low, you should be folding more on the FLOP, not the river. Basically you're holding onto losing hands too long and folding them to river bets instead of earlier streets. In other words, you bloat the pot and then fold at the end. This keeps your WTSD where it should be but it means you put a lot of money into the pot in the process. My guess is you are doing lots of bet/fold lines on the turn and river...hands where you should be check/folding or check/calling. Hopefully this helps.

-dustyn

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you for the great reply.

When I first started my poker career, my PFR was extremely low so it is skewing the numbers a bit. The 6k stats are much more like what I currently play at.

After looking over your three possible reasons, I think that #2 is definitely the cause. After thinking about my play, I've safely ruled out #1.

#3 is also a possibility to some degree, especially in my entire 35k hand sample. However, I have gotten ALOT better at calculating odds. Although I still do not do it as religously as I should, I definitely figure them out on drawing hands.

Now to #2. This has got to be it. Say I have AK and the flop comes with rags, how far do you push? What if you have KK and an A comes?

Stuff like that.

I've had a bunch of interesting hands tonight but they have been on Prima (no hand converter) and Multipoker 9 max since no full games are running.

Also, I do not think that the $1/$2 games are very loose at all. Especially at some of the smaller sights, and even at some the X-skins, flop %'s are usually in the high 20's, low 30's.

Much different from when I first started playing.

Since I depend on bonuses for so much of my play, I'm always playing at different sites. Especially while clearing bonuses at $1/$2, i find that many of the people are typical ABC poker players who are clearing the bonus just like me. Theoretically, I would t hink that 2/4 would be much easier.

I'm way overbankrolled for 2/4 thanks to casinos but I would like to fix at least some of the major leaks in my game before I move up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you're dead on with #2. My guess is you're pushing overcards a lot...doing bet/fold lines on the turn with them, and bloating the pot with essentially nothing. Playing unimproved overcards is difficult, but in a 1/2 game where people aren't folding, you are better off just letting go of them on the turn if they are unimproved (since it's 1/2 I'm assuming there's lots of multiway pots). Or you can raise the flop and take a free card on the turn - I think that's especially effective in a passive game where people are less likely to 3 bet you on the flop.

-dustyn

[ QUOTE ]
The only thing I've been thinking is that I might hold on to my cards too long..meaning, I might call a turn bet knowing that I'm beat unless I get a miracle card on the river, causing my fold % on the river to be high?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's huge leak for most people.

When facing a bet or raise on the Turn, think to yourself
Do I have a solid made hand or a reasonable draw to a really good one?
If not, fold.

You'r probably calling lots of Turn bets with bottom pair, an underpair, unimproved overcards or a gutshot hoping for that miracle.

Hand 1, I bet the Flop.

Hand 2, I play it the same way.

Hand 3, not sure I raise Q10s pre-flop but would definitely raise the Flop bet regardless.

Might have been tempted to check behind after the scary 9 hit on the Turn, but I probably end up doing the same as you did. At least you weren't a complete Donkey calling a double checkraise and praying for a Jack to hit (with at least one if not 2 in your opponents' hands).

[Bob T.]

Its a game. Are you having fun? If so, don't quit. If you aren't, then you probably should.

Sure, it would be nice to be winning more money, but the fact that you are breaking even in a raked game, means that you are beating the game to some extent. Just not enough to beat the rake (Which was $1300) over your sample.

But it really goes back to the first question, are you having fun?

Maybe a little more background would help.

I'm a 21 year old college student. I'm EXTREMELY competitive and was fortunate enough to have very smart parents who passed that down to me. School comes extremely easy for me (full ride for grades), meaning I have hours upon hours of free time on my hands.

Being so competitive, it annoys me to no end that I can't beat this game. By my very nature (smart and analytical) it should seem like a game that I should thrive in, and I'm not.

Basically, I'm looking at this like a challenge. And I'll play 200k hands or however much it takes until I can consistently beat this game. That's just the person I came.

I came from a background in casino whoring and made a great deal of money off of it. I LIVED off of +EV opportunities no matter how risky it was. However, due to my age, I got into the casino side too late and missed many of the greatest opportunities.

In Poker, I see one of the greatest +EV opportunities that we have ever seen. It would be a shame to pass it up.

Also, I've been trying to post hands from Multipoker and I can't get the converter to work. Even though the converter recognizes Party and Empire, I guess it doesn't recognize Multi and Pokernow? Any converters that do? Since I'm playing at Prima and Multi/Pokernow, its tough to post hands.

Also, as I speak, I'm currently down some 55B in 1/2 over the last day and a half as my win at showdown plumments even further while trying to implement the changes people have suggested.

I know its a very tiny sample but its definitely disheartening.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
By my very nature (smart and analytical) it should seem like a game that I should thrive in, and I'm not.

[/ QUOTE ]

These skills (and confidence) can actually be fairly dangerous to have while you're still learning the game & playing on microlimits. I know that I had a fair amount of trouble when I started out with overthinking & making too many "expert" plays in the micros. At some point, you need to tone down your thinking while at the table and go to a more ABC approach--the old "walk before you run" thing. Multi-tabling helped me to do this, although I still capped myself at two tables for the first 8 months or so.

Remember, many of your opponents in the 1/2 & below games are not good at poker, plain and simple. They are either loose/passives who just like to gambool, or as you pointed out, are other bonus whores who are playing a weak/tight game in the interest of getting in as many raked hands as possible with as low a risk as possible. Neither category of opponent is going to be making a lot of moves against you, and so neither should you try to make them that often. It's very easy when you're confident in your intelligence and analytical ability to pigeonhole your opponent to a very specific holding, and try to outplay him postflop when he's not sophisticated enough (or is playing too many tables while working off a bonus to recognize) your play.

[JojoDiego]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I've been trying to post hands from Multipoker and I can't get the converter to work. Even though the converter recognizes Party and Empire, I guess it doesn't recognize Multi and Pokernow? Any converters that do? Since I'm playing at Prima and Multi/Pokernow, its tough to post hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Post your hands by hand. Copy a hand history from PT and paste it into Word, Notepad, etc., and then edit it to remove screennames, extraneous info, etc. Then paste it in here and you're good to go. Sure, it's a bit of a pain, but you probably won't (shouldn't) post more than 1 or 2 hands a day anyway. And, on the plus side, doing it by hand can force you to really think about the hand before you post it.

And the crapshow continues, down 80BB in two days as my win % at shodown continues to stay at 47% despite going to showdown 30% of the time.

Hand 4

MP+2 with Kd8d

4 limpers including me

Flop is Js, 6h, 8h

Everyone checks to me, and I check

Turn is 5s

4 checks, so I bet, with 1 caller

River is Ad

I bet and am called

Any thoughts on this hand?