2/4 - 99 OOP - Something a little different

[chief444]

Interesting one.

Given the turn play the river bet is good. The turn is close but I would play it the same. You're pretty likely to be ahead of MP1 (50%+). You're maybe 35-40% against UTG's range (9 combo's KTs/QTs/JTs, 4 combos of 77/55, and 2 combos of A5s you lose to and a few spade combos, 3 A7s combos, and 6 combos of 88 and maybe 66 is in there that you're ahead of). He may fold a weak T if you raise. But that seems unlikely and with MP1 calling along you're hand is probably still worth a call but I don't think your hand is strong enough for anything else. Check/folding the turn is probably not giving up a lot either. But I think it's worth it to continue. So I'd play it the same.

[MrEngenic]

I think I fold the flop. Anyone else?
I don't know what UTG+1 is donking with but probably either a T or flushdraw+overcards. Button probably has overcards and MP1 at least one overcard. It looks like you are either WB or ahead but half the deck will beat you on the turn or river.

When you do decide to call the flop I like the rest.

[MrEngenic]

Why don't you guys fold the flop with bet-call-call in front and oop?

Deranged is my hero. I love his line here. I think a donk turn would clear up the hand quite nicely for us. A T is going to pop, a 5 is going to pop, an overpair is going to pop, in which case we have our 2 lovely outs (bad) but we'll likely be HU from there (good) or can release and be done with it. Any other holdings will either fold (good) or we have charged them to chase (good).

The way it was played, I'm with kwaz on the river play. I don't see UTG+1 laying down to our bet and he might pop us if he does have a T or a 5. The other villain is a mystery. We might have the best hand, we might not. We're pretty much 1 in 3 against a reasonable range of hands for our two villains, so let's not pay two bets or bet/fold when we can check/call and potentially take down 9-11BB for 1. I just don't see the value of the river donk.

[MrEngenic]

Bump, why don't you guys consider folding the flop?

[Jim Easton]

Folding might be the best play in this situation. I would check the flop looking to checkraise the preflop raiser, but the bet from the solid postflop player in EP changes things. If you are ahead, you have to dodge 1/3 or more of the deck twice and if you are behind, you only have 1 reasonable out, as the 9s would be questionable. Sometimes the best defense against a semi-bluff is to fold.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
Bump, why don't you guys consider folding the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Mr. E,

Basically, the reason folding the flop is bad is because we simply have too much hand. The important things in this hand:

1. The pot is only four handed. Against three opponents, very often our pair is the only pair or at least the top pair when we have only one overcard on board.

2. The overcard is a T. Basically, I am less scared of overcards the lower in rank they are. I think folding would be more reasonable if the overcard were an A, a bit less so if it were a K, etc...

3. Button not raising the flop makes it considerably less likely he has an overpair.

4. UTG's bet might represent a T, but a solid postflop player might prefer to check-raise a hand like AT here. A bet here might just as well represent a hand like Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], or even something like 88. (The fact that UTG is likely to have a ton of outs against us is precisely the reason we prefer to wait until the turn to get aggressive, because an overcard or [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] turn means we can probably be done with the hand).

Those are my thoughts.