Blind steal goes bad

[A_K]

Because of the loosness of most of the games where I play, I don't get a lot of practice stealing blinds and playing back at possible resteals. Sometimes I get it right, and sometimes I feel like I'm spewing. So . . . what would you do here?

Villan is 20/9/infinite, but only over about 30 hands. No blind-defense reads, and I haven't seen him do anything out of the ordinary.

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

To agressive? SB and BB were reasonably tight, so I thought this had a decent chance of a successful steal.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero . . .

Raise here? Just call? Hard to see J high having much showdown value, so even assuming that both of my outs are clean, I am just barely getting odds to peel and see the turn. Fold?

Edited to reflect the fact that it is impossible for me to check raise on the flop.

Edited again -- I shouldn't post when I'm tired. I realize that (a) I have six outs if villan doesn't have a J or a T, and (b) that I'm getting odds even if he has a J or a T. Still not sure what to do though.

[GTSamIAm]

Easy fold. No reason to assume he'll fold to a flop raise unless you've already seen him do things like that.

[gharp]

I think you can justify a peel here getting 7.5:1. You'll have to fold the turn if it's not an 8,9,T or J.



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(b) that I'm getting odds even if he has a J or a T. Still not sure what to do though.

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You aren't getting good enough odds to call if villain has a J or T. You're screwed in that case, but I tend not to worry too much about domination in these heads-up blind-steal situations.

[shermn27]

Sure you might be getting odds to try to spike a pair, but what if your opponent already has your pair beat? Then if you spike a pair you are in an even worse spot. If he has been fairly tight, I would just throw this small pot away and wait for a better opportunity. You tried to steal, he has a real hand, just go away.

[A_K]

[ QUOTE ]

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(b) that I'm getting odds even if he has a J or a T. Still not sure what to do though.

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You aren't getting good enough odds to call if villain has a J or T. You're screwed in that case, but I tend not to worry too much about domination in these heads-up blind-steal situations.

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You're right. Man I must be tired if I can't properly multiply by two tonight.

*grunch*

I don't mind a raise like this against tight blinds. You're going to get 3-bet once in a while, it happens.

After getting 3-bet and bet into on this flop, I fold it. I don't like my chances of drawing to a pair that could easily be no good anyway. You can't win UI, and your draw is either weak or crushed already.

If the pot was a million dollars, you'd be committed to trying for the lucky turn card, but say goodbye to this small pot and move on to the next one.

I think many aggro players know when to challenge the blinds, but get too attached to bad/dangerous flops. None of us like to wear the dress, but your steal raises won't ever be +EV if you're blowing those extra SBs.

[adsman]

You can either fold it here, or smooth call zee flop and raise zee turn.

[bottomset]

I usually just fold the flop here

[ArturiusX]

Arg, this situation sucks, because we simply don't have enough information.

I think I would peel the flop for one. Few reasons:

1) Meta game, which doesnt matter much at this limit, but its still there. Let him know he aint taking shots.

2) I don't think he has a monster. Monsters are more likely to do a bit of slowplaying here.

3) Sometimes he'll check the turn, being scared of our smooth-call, so another free card.

But yeah, folding this isn't bad at all, considering blind wars isnt really part of this game.

Do you think villain have any reads on you. I cant tell you how many times I catch people trying to steal the blinds. They do it every freaking time the button and CO comes your way. Stealing the blinds is an excellent tool but you dont have to do it EVERY time. People will catch on and 3bet your crap hands and then a profitable play becomes an unprofitable on.