concerning variance

Good day all,

My question is , As you can see be the chart below I have had a wild swing the 10k hands. Is this normal? This has been a rollercoaster and just bracing myself.

Thoughts.....

[MicroBob]

10000 hands and you won 160BB's.

Nothing unusual at all.
1.6BB/100.
(although we don't know what limit you are playing...or whether you are playing full-table or 6-max)


Good job so far (although a small sample-size of course).


Looks like your most dramatic upswing was from 5k to 7k.
this was a 2k hands stretch where you won approx 200BB's.
so that's 10BB/100 over those 2k hands.
that's a really nice surge...but certainly not THAT out of the ordinary (don't expect it to happen TOO regularly for you though....but 70BB's over 1k hands can happen all the time...and the more it happens, the better, of course.).


your worst down-swing was about 60BB over about 1.4k hands.
Sorry to break it to you..but you will have MUCH worse down-swings than this.


Yup...it's a roller-coaster and it takes some getting used to. That's why you should play WELL within your bankroll.
If the thought of losing 75BB's at your particular limit makes you ill then you probably shouldn't be playing there...because dropping 75 BB's can happen VERY quickly when your flopped sets always end up facing that 4th diamond on the river, etc etc.


Anyway, what you are experiencing is not THAT uncommon.
you will have rides like this all the time...and also stretches like your first 5k hands of mostly break-even play that just last and last (longer than 5k).


Possible that you changed your play after your first 5k hands to give you a big old steaming heap of variance.

also possible that you are playing exactly the same for the most part.


There was a poster named Victor who recently posted his pokerchart graph of 200k or so hands at 5/10 6-max over in the HUSH forum.

It showed wilder peaks and valleys than this.
He was winning 1.8BB/100...so was up 1800BB's in total....but in the middle there was a 400BB downswing over 20k hands (I believe).

It was in someone else's thread so I don't know if I'll be able to find it...but it was quite striking.
Especially because his 400BB down-swing over 20k hands was almost not noticeable on a 200k hands graph where he was up 1800BB's overall.
didn't even look at it until I went to the axis on both sides and saw "holy crap...that little down-turn there is a 400BB down-swing over 20k hands!!!'



My final advice is that if the variance is too much for you to handle emotionally you should strongly consider moving down a limit.

As you can see I started out well and then started a slide (4200-5k) was a wake up call. I started to play position and picked up middle limit hold’em. Aroud13k I reread all the books I have purchased and it clicked one night I was playing live ( a spread game). After that point I began to use the skill of analyzing pre-flop hands and post flop play with them ( I am sure this is basic stuff). Now I put my money in with the best of it and it has been working. I hope to achieve win rate or around 1.4BB/100 from my play. I rely heavy upon bonus and rake bake (good for 3bb/100 at 2/4). I have a online roll of $4500 and cash roll of $5000. At the end of every month I take 60% as pay, 20% as Savings and 20% back into the roll.

I am becoming comfortable with the extra income (I have a full time job) and at the sites I play 2/4 full is the only game I can play multiple tables. I am wondering is it ok to stay at my current level for another 100k hands before moving? I see people moving up all the time and just want to be a winner over the long haul.

My personal goal is to use the extra money to pay off my house and then buy an E55.

Any other thoughts......beside micro Bob's

[iceman5]

Better take out 25% or so for taxes.

[Timer]

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Any other thoughts......beside micro Bob's

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you weren't expedting the graph to go straight up. Have you ever looked at any graphs of stocks--winning stocks that have done very well. They fluctuate too. Poker IS a roller coaster ride, and if you think your fluctuations are out of the ordinary wait until you've been doing this for a couple of decades.

What's an E55?

[Uglyowl]

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Any other thoughts......beside micro Bob's

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If you are who I think you are, 1.5bb/100 just playing will treat you very well. Just playing break-even poker and 200/hands per hour you should be able to make $20/hour. Not bad for an fun game huh. Add more tables to this and it gets better. I know there will be the people who pipe in and think $20/hour sucks, but with no travel time, free to come and go as you please, etc. it is cool.

Your graph is completely normal. Mine follows exactly how I would expect it to play well, pretty flat most of the time and I try to stay even when the cards aren't there, not forcing the issue. I get into trouble when I try to force things.

Your variance is actually very small. Nice job BTW.

Thank you for you comments, yes I am who you think I am. Glad you been busy on other sites...lol

A E55 is a E-class by Mercedes with AMG treatment...to the tune of 400+horses and 75K

[MicroBob]

i'm not so sure how completely normal it is.

in the 2nd graph he had a 170BB downswing over 8k hands which is kind of hard to do at 2/4 full.
It's possible of course...but is also likely he wasn't playing too great.


I don't know what the 2nd graph is though compared to the first graph.
just his next set of hands that he's posting?