Are you convinced enough to fold?

Saborion · #1 12-04-2004, 07:32 PM

Recently sat down, so no reads.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (14.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls.

What do you put them on? Especially the CO.
And how do you proceed?

Trix · #2 12-04-2004, 07:39 PM

I guess so, I dont think you will see TT-88 here very often.

MP has anything from bottom-2.pair to a OESD or gutshot. Could be 7x too I guess if he is passive, but not that often.

Saborion · #3 12-04-2004, 08:29 PM

Well, say he'll play AA-QQ and TT this way. 3:1 I'm behind plus I'll draw out every now and then. Bad fold, very bad fold. If he'll play 99 the same way, then it's even worse.

Still think it's a fold?

Harv72b · #4 12-04-2004, 09:29 PM

I'd call down. I've seen plenty of people play AK this way, let alone AA-QQ, and with the pot as big as it is you don't have to win this hand very often to have a +EV.

My general rule of thumb with medium-high pockets is I'll call down with 1 overcard on the board, so long as there isn't 4 to a flush or straight or something. When you get to 2 or more overcards, then I'm more apt to give the raiser the benefit of the doubt.

This might also be a hole in my play, I don't know. I've been meaning to look into that in more detail.

Edit to add: I would put CO on AA, but still call down for the reasons above.

Without a read, I'd put MP1 on overcards or a smaller PP like 88 or 99. He's just tagging along for the ride & hoping for a miracle.

The T.A. · #5 12-04-2004, 09:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, say he'll play AA-QQ and TT this way. 3:1 I'm behind plus I'll draw out every now and then. Bad fold, very bad fold. If he'll play 99 the same way, then it's even worse.

Still think it's a fold?

[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed.

I'd just call down from the turn, onwards.

Saborion · #6 12-04-2004, 10:01 PM

You really find people capping with AKo on the flop in spots like this at 2/4?

joker122 · #7 12-04-2004, 10:19 PM

your effective odds to get to a showdown are 9:1 against an unknown. you are def. good here 1 in 9 times. plus, as you said, you get to suckout ~5% of the time, so you've got some implied odds there.

JinX11 · #8 12-04-2004, 10:45 PM

Call down and laugh as he turns over something surprising like AK.

colgin · #9 12-04-2004, 11:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You really find people capping with AKo on the flop in spots like this at 2/4?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't. While I am sure there are a few maniacs out there at this level who do, I don't really see this in online $2/4.

Harv72b · #10 12-04-2004, 11:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You really find people capping with AKo on the flop in spots like this at 2/4?

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe capping the flop without a pair was a bit much, but I have seen AK 3-bet & call a cap without pairing the flop, and cap preflop many times. There are just people out there who seem to think of AK as a made hand along the lines of AA or KK, and play it much the same way in the early stages of a hand.

Obviously I'm not going to put an unknown on AKo in this situation, but I'm not going to completely rule it out as a possibility, either.