SNGPT says it's negEV....

#1 12-30-2005, 10:35 AM

PP $22, I plugged in CO pushing instead of raising, SnGPT says I should be folding QQ to a maniacal push range, and KK to a loose push range....what do you guys think?

PartyPoker, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t2670)
Hero (t915)
SB (t4135)
BB (t280)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
CO raises t520, Hero raises 915 (all in) , SB folds, BB calls 130 , CO calls t395

#2 12-30-2005, 10:54 AM

Well it depends on what range you put him of course. You need to be extremely tight there, BUT if you expect the small stack to come along it changes things, by a LOT.

Sciolist · #3 12-30-2005, 10:56 AM

I'd play this, I'd rather have a stack that can compete for first. Coming third doesn't mean a great deal. If CO wins, he'll likely be knocking BB out too, so you'd get ITM anyway...

#4 12-30-2005, 11:02 AM

I'd be mad pissed if I folded this and BB ended up doubling up as a result. Call!

#5 12-30-2005, 11:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd play this, I'd rather have a stack that can compete for first. Coming third doesn't mean a great deal.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get this. If something is -$EV it's -$EV. It means *don't do it*. And if you believe you should do it your calculations or your assumptions must be wrong.

Sciolist · #6 12-30-2005, 11:12 AM

CEV doesn't mean everything, it missed out on a lot of variables.

#7 12-30-2005, 11:18 AM

Look at the raiser's mindset. Raiser knows that BB will call because the blind is half his stack. He also knows you'll fold anything to make the money because BB is about to get knocked out. So if he raises, it will be his 2 cards verses BB's random 2 cards. I'd be slightly worried about raising into the big stack, but apparently he wasn't, so he probably has a slightly better than average raising hand. I'd put him on any A7+, K10+, Q10+, any pair>6. From his point of view, I agree with the raise. He's holding a better than average hand verses one random hand, which he can assume is average.

For your mindset, you have to think this through. You are way ahead of most of the hands he could raise with, and only behind to KK, AA, and only slightly ahead of AK. You're looking to double up, and I see this as the perfect opportunity. The only way I fold here is if raiser has been a rock, only raising high pockets or AK.

With only 900 chips, if you don't call this, there is a good chance you're third place.

The three way pot isn't great, but only 280*3 of it will go to the BB if he wins and you can still almost double up. If the BB had a big enough stack to hurt you, he has a big enough stack to fold to 2 all-ins.

#8 12-30-2005, 01:07 PM

Good analysis AggieYank. This type of thinking is much more valuable than EV estimates spit out by SnGPT, which are too sensitive to assumptions (GIGO) and can't cover all the variables.

To me, this is a "must play" for the reasons AggieYank put forth, but it is not a push, not yet at least. If you push now, BB could fold in the hope you will get knocked out. He may be unlikely to fold, but it also may be that's his only chance if you push and he has two worthless cards.

Sykes · #9 12-30-2005, 01:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis AggieYank. This type of thinking is much more valuable than EV estimates spit out by SnGPT, which are too sensitive to assumptions (GIGO) and can't cover all the variables.

To me, this is a "must play" for the reasons AggieYank put forth, but it is not a push, not yet at least. If you push now, BB could fold in the hope you will get knocked out. He may be unlikely to fold, but it also may be that's his only chance if you push and he has two worthless cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm BB and I see Button push, I fold any hand that's not KK/AA and I'd be taking my time to call with KK.

eastbay · #10 12-30-2005, 01:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis AggieYank. This type of thinking is much more valuable than EV estimates spit out by SnGPT, which are too sensitive to assumptions (GIGO) and can't cover all the variables.

To me, this is a "must play" for the reasons AggieYank put forth, but it is not a push, not yet at least. If you push now, BB could fold in the hope you will get knocked out. He may be unlikely to fold, but it also may be that's his only chance if you push and he has two worthless cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? I think your action reads need a little work. If you push, BB is folding effectively 100% of the time.

eastbay