5-10 big pot at the Bike

[Louie Landale]

This is terrible advice against a strong tough tricky fold: play your hand in such a manner that he can bluff you with impunity on the river. This would make sense against someone (most of us) who don't have the guts to make a big river bluff against someone known to have a fairly strong hand, but isn't good advice against this player.

Making a play "to get information" only works if you won't get the info some other way, if the info is very reliable, AND the information is very useful. Against this kind of player the info isn't reliable.

- Louie

[Louie Landale]

Your main fear about playing against these really good folks is that he can put you on a hand better than most. Secondarily your fear is going to make you play more predictably which is good for him in general AND helps him read your hand even better. This means he's good at deducing your hand, especially with the moves-false-moves you described preceeding the river bet: that was a potential disaster for you. He could easily have deliberatly removed his chip just to get a reaction from you, which he got, and can more accurately deduce your holding.

Checking and calling this sort of aggressive player makes a lot of sense, so long as you know what to do if faced with a big all-in bet later. Against folks who bet more than they call, checking and calling generally works out better (so long, as I said, you aren't going to lose a great big pot later because if it). It turns out your fear caused you to underplay your hand which accidentally caused you to play the hand with the highest EV against this guy: he isn't going to call a turn raise with his bottom two pair.

- Louie

[cero_z]

Hi DanK,

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should rerais on the flop to 400 or so...reraising and then leading the turn for 5-600 (if he just calls on the flop) is what I would do.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an excellent way to go broke against a set. If he does have a set, a good player with position obviously just calls on the flop, and probably on the turn, too. But even if he reveals himself on the turn, it has cost you about 800, and you didn't get to see his hand. Riverboat's line cost him 1100, if he was beaten, and he got to catch possible bluffs, and extract more against smaller hands who thought they were value betting.

[cero_z]

Hi Utah,

[ QUOTE ]
I think you push the turn here.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way. There's only one unlikely draw on the flop, so if you think your hand is good enough to push on the turn, push on the flop. Not that I think it is. Pushing the turn is a losing play in this spot.

[ QUOTE ]
2,2...is very unlikely given his play - i.e., why would he try to push you off on the flop with 3 raggedly cards?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he's a very good player, and he wants it to look like he's trying to push you off. He knows that he won't get paid off against a skilled opponent, unless they also have a very good hand, so he loses nothing by raising here. Well, he loses riverboat if he was semi-bluffing, but given this flop and his picture of riverboat as "a little weak-tight," that's not too likely a scenario.

What you're suggesting is to play a big pot with this hand, which I don't think you can profitably do against an expert who has position on you.

[cero_z]

Hi riverboatking,

I was posting a long response, and the power went out, and I'm lazy. So here's a synopsis.

This is a tough hand to play, unless you read your opponent very well. And given your comments about him, that seems unlikely.

One important factor to consider is, would he play any 2 cards pre-flop? I do, when I think I'm the best at the table, and the game is passive. Two-pair is a 4 to 1 favorite mathematically, but if he'd only play J5, J2, and 52 if they were suited, it's very close. But, he might put you on just one good pair, and figure you won't see it all the way through. I wouldn't be surprised to see a set or a split here, because I think he needs to check behind with a smaller 2 pair.

The stuff on the river does indicate a value bet with 2 pair, if it's not an act. And since J9 is really unlikely, I like your chances.

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
but given this flop and his picture of riverboat as "a little weak-tight," that's not too likely a scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

who said he viewed me as a little weak-tight?
i don't think that was his picture of me at all.
while we hadn't really gotten involved in a pot together, my image is definately not one of weak tight.
first of all i'm the youngest player on the table (24), and as i mentioned in my original post, i have shown a willingness to semi-bluff.

[cero_z]

Sorry, bud.

[ QUOTE ]
who said he viewed me as a little weak-tight?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I mixed it up with another post I'd just read. My point was that even though you'd shown a willingness to semi-bluff, there's only one or two hands to semi-bluff with on this flop, and I don't think he expects you to lead into the field with 43 or 64.

I've read the results now, and I agree with Louie that you accidentally maximized your EV, especially with the little move at the end. As I indicated in my first post to you, I think he has a pretty clear check on the end with bottom 2. I have no doubt that your willingness to get the hand over with led him to "value-bet" you on the end. And even with that info, if he thinks you're good, the only hands that he should expect to get called by and beat are overpairs (unlikely) and AJ, which many good players wouldn't call with in your spot.

[riverboatking]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, bud.
I think I mixed it up with another post I'd just read

[/ QUOTE ]

no prob.

yeah i think it was my unconcious river move that led him to "value bet", although that certainly was not my intention.

throughout the hand i just kept thinking about how good this guy was at laying down second best hands, and so i just couldn't see what point there was in raising as there were no draws i could put him on.

[FishyWhale]

villian in this hand...

Yet another "villian" thread? Perhaps any "definately" around for company [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]?

[FishyWhale]

Probably had jacks and decided whether to value bet or not, so I think in this case it was good that you decided to play meekly; that way you will also lose less vs a set.