KJs HU OOP on turn and river

Aaron W. · #1 06-13-2005, 01:37 PM

Nothing solid yet on villain. He seems a little loose, a little aggressive, but it's far too early to be putting large amounts of faith in those reads.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 4 folds, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

River: (6 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ...

What do you consider in this spot?

shadow29 · #2 06-13-2005, 01:40 PM

Your bet is fine on the turn. You have folding equity, a gutshot and I think that you would have heard from an A on the flop. Maybe he's scared of his kicker, but your turn bet is fine.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say c/r the river. It might be a little too advanced for 1/2. If it is let me know.

edit- now that i think about it im not sure this line would be best. ill mull some more.

SteveL91 · #3 06-13-2005, 01:41 PM

I generally run through the possible hands I think he'd limp with in that position, then compare those hands to the flop texture and see if there are any likely draws. Going off your info, I don't think he's folding the river for another bet, but these situations are a definite weakness of mine.

handsome · #4 06-13-2005, 02:09 PM

I dunno about that turn.
Bet and fold to a raise.

Fantam · #5 06-13-2005, 02:10 PM

So if UTG+1 is a little bit loose, what will he be calling on the flop and turn with?

I would imagine something like a small to medium pocket pair,Ax, middle or bottom pair. I doubt that he would have anything better, otherwise he would probably have raised the flop, particularly if he is a little bit agressive.

I think UTG would have to be extremely loose if he only had Tx or worse.

So I think that most times you are beaten on the river.

Normally I would say that you should check on the river so as not to value bet UTG's marginal hands which beat you for him, as he will probably call if he is an agressive player.

However as UTG has only called the whole way. And with the 2nd A falling on the river, a bluff bet on the end is probably your best chance of picking up the pot, as UTG may fear that you have AK or AQ and fold.

If UTG then 3-bets the river, I think you should fold as now you are almost certainly beaten.

karitek · #6 06-13-2005, 02:14 PM

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't like the flop bet at all. You only have a BDFD and a BDSD. You are behind to any Ax - which LAGs love to play.

What do you put UTG+1 on when he calls? He's probably not on a draw since the board is rainbow. He could have 22 or 44, but i think those aren't that likely.

So fold the flop. Definitely fold the turn. But since you did neither, you have to bet out that river and fold to a raise.

Redd · #7 06-13-2005, 02:16 PM

I'm intrigued by the flop play. Do you think both opponents will fold more than 1 time in 6 here?

tiltaholic · #8 06-13-2005, 02:25 PM

this may not be correct, but i primarily consider how often i expect him to fold and how ballsy i think he is (to raise a better hand). if i feel he is highly likely to call with a better hand than to raise (as he should) then i am more inclined to bet (and to give him a chance to fold).

however...i think this might be a huge weakness in my game.

(and i think the turn bet is goot.)

Aaron W. · #9 06-13-2005, 02:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm intrigued by the flop play. Do you think both opponents will fold more than 1 time in 6 here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on the flop texture (not many mid-range cards), I think I may actually have the best hand right now. With one early position limper and a defended big blind, the chances of someone pairing the board is very small. Yes, an ace is possible, but to assume an ace is out there immediately is very timid thinking. A very large portion of the time, the ace is NOT out there. BB has the best chance of having me beat at the moment, if he made some loose blind defense with J5 or other junk like that. Limped pocket pairs are possible, but again it's too early to assume that, especially in such a small field.

All of this is to say that we're probably playing the high card game right now, and I'm probably in the lead. I think I have a decent chance of taking it down now, and a very good chance of taking it down on a turn with another bet. Does it happen once in every seven tries (14% of the time)? Maybe not, but given the chances of having the best hand, I don't always need them to fold this one. I would love to have J9s or Q8 peeling one off on the flop (Q8 of courses catches me on the turn, but that's how poker goes).

Fantam · #10 06-13-2005, 02:35 PM

So what were your thoughts on the river?

Or are you waiting for more responses, before you reveal how you played and what your reasoning was?