JJ overpair facing strengh on flop (1/2 on Stars).

#1 12-03-2005, 03:36 PM

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP2 raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero ?

It's many second hand at the table. What should I do ?
Thank you for your help.

#2 12-03-2005, 04:01 PM

If this was heads up, I'd go WA/WB and call down, but I think you can fold here without too much worry. The pot is small, and you're being led into by a UTG limper and the original PFR. Since you have no reads/stats yet its hard to put these players on a range, so I would just fold. The only hands MP2 might have that he wouldn't probably cap with that are beating you are 99 and QQ. I think UTG+1 probably has a 5.

Could be way off since you have no reads. I tend to play it safe in situations like this, and hope there's a showdown so you can see these guys' hands.

Steve

jaxUp · #3 12-03-2005, 04:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If this was heads up, I'd go WA/WB and call down, but I think you can fold here without too much worry. The pot is small, and you're being led into by a UTG limper and the original PFR. Since you have no reads/stats yet its hard to put these players on a range, so I would just fold. The only hands MP2 might have that he wouldn't probably cap with that are beating you are 99 and QQ. I think UTG+1 probably has a 5.

Could be way off since you have no reads. I tend to play it safe in situations like this, and hope there's a showdown so you can see these guys' hands.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry steve, but I disagree with much of this. This pot is quite large.16SB on the flop is a crapload. I think the reason to fold is not that it's difficult to put them on a hand range, but because their potential range will have us dominated. There's no reason to put UTG on a 5. I think he has a 9 here WAY more often than a 5.

#4 12-03-2005, 04:54 PM

Yeah, I just get cautious in situations like this. When I said the pot is small, I actually meant that it was small considering the odds and action; UTG is waking up after a preflop limp, and MP2 is raising into that flop as well, so I don't really think we can continue here, especially considering reverse implied odds. At these low limits, I don't see people firing at the pot after the flop too often unless they have a good piece of it. Then again, if UTG has a 5 he's probably slowplaying it if he's a bad player. Sometimes I forget to look at how my opponents think instead of how I think about a hand.

Steve

#5 12-03-2005, 06:46 PM

With 2 players showing this much strength after your pf 3-bet, I say you're behind and drawing to the 2 remaining J's. In a perfect world you're against A9 and TT, but I think it's more likely you're facing some combo of 99, TT, QQ, A5, A9, or AA/KK that didn't cap pf. Of these you only beat TT and A9, and you have 2 players telling you they are best. This flop might also get capped, in which case I would want to vommit. HU I might call to river, but here I fold with a clear conscience.

#6 12-03-2005, 07:33 PM

This hand is pretty easy. Cap and lead; fold if faced with two on the turn.

Your hand is still good here the vast majority of the time.

Redd · #7 12-03-2005, 07:38 PM

I call here, and call a flop cap. I don't like folding immediately because there's still a decent (read: not fantastic, not horrible) chance we're ahead, and I want to see the action behind me. I check-fold the turn UI to a flop cap. All other situations I'd reevaluate.

#8 12-03-2005, 08:16 PM

I ran some combos on pokerstove and w/16sbs we seem to have equity to at least see a turn, but it's not great if my combos are realistic. I think call/cap flop is close and lead, fold turn is good. If turn lead is not raised, I value bet safe river. Thoughts?

Board: 9h 5s 5d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 17.2205 % 16.42% 00.80% { JdJs }
Hand 2: 41.3898 % 39.71% 01.68% { 99+, A9s, A5s, A9o, A5o }
Hand 3: 41.3898 % 39.71% 01.68% { 99+, A9s, A5s, A9o, A5o }

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973,434 games 0.328 secs 2,967,786 games/sec

Board: 9h 5s 5d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 09.1313 % 08.62% 00.51% { JdJs }
Hand 2: 45.4344 % 43.43% 02.01% { 99+, A5s, A5o }
Hand 3: 45.4344 % 43.43% 02.01% { 99+, A5s, A5o }

#9 12-03-2005, 08:24 PM

I think your estimate of their hand ranges is erronous. I'm thinking the first guy can easily have any pair.

Also, MP2 is very unlikely to have a five, much more likely to have 77-1010, given his preflop action.

#10 12-03-2005, 08:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think your estimate of their hand ranges is erronous. I'm thinking the first guy can easily have any pair.

Also, MP2 is very unlikely to have a five, much more likely to have 77-1010, given his preflop action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems reasonable. I'm probably giving too much credit, but what is MP2 3-betting with here? Definately not 77 or 88, and probably not TT unless super-LAG.