ICM Help Required..

OK guys, I've FINALLY got round to giving this ICM stuff a crack, I'm going to use a hand I had in an earlier $5 SNG as an example, here's the situation...

Blinds: 100/200 (+25 antes)

UTG (3360 in chips)
BUTTON (7135 in chips)
SB (HERO) (2040 in chips)
BB (965 in chips)

It's Folded to HERO in the SB who holds A2s.

Reads: HERO had been pushing from the button a few times with good hands recently but being uncalled. May appear to be stealing frequently. However BB has folded quite a bit so I'd give him an average to tight calling range...

Now this is where I need some help:

This is how I've worked out everything on ICM... is this all correct?

1) you fold
UTG 3335
Button 7110
HERO 1915
BB 1140
20.4% of the prize pool

2a) you push and lose
UTG 3335
Button 7110
HERO 1050
BB 2005
12.2% of the prize pool

2b) you push and win
UTG 3335
Button 7110
HERO 3055
BB 0
30.5% of the prize pool

2c) you push and he folds
UTG 3335
Button 7110
HERO 2315
SB 740
23.9% of the prize pool

2d) you push and split
UTG 3335
Button 7110
HERO 2065
BB 990
21.8% of the prize pool

Now I've also downloaded Pokerstove, and I gave villian a range of: 22+, A6s+, A7o+, KJs+, KJo+. Does this sound fair enough to you?

Here's again where I need help.. these are the results:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

327,050,064 games 1.810 secs 180,690,643 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.7131 % 34.48% 03.23% { Ac2c }
Hand 2: 62.2869 % 59.06% 03.23% { 22+, A6s+, KJs+, A7o+, KJo+ }

But NOW I'm stuck... I'm unsure what I do with this numbers to help determine if a push here is +EV? ...

Thanks for your help.

[GtrHtr]

Here you go. ICM Clinic

I used that to get where I am, but because it's a different situation (calling a push rather than making it) I'm stuck on what to do with my numbers next...

[GtrHtr]

solve for push instead of call. Push =

Yes sorry, I'm SB with A2s.

[GtrHtr]

Pushing = (probability of getting called)(ICM 4 Push/Win) + (probability of getting called)(ICM 4 Push/Lose) + (probability of not getting called)(ICM 4 Push/Steal Blinds)

Cheers dude, given the range I've given villian is there an easy way to figure out % of not getting called... ?

[tigerite]

or simply (probability of getting called) x (ICM 4 Push/Win - ICM 4 Push/Lose) + (1 - probability of getting called) x (ICM 4 Push/Steal Blinds)

ie. P(W - L) + F(1 - P)

[tigerite]

Yes there is, you just look at the K-S chart and see how many of the 1225 ( [50 x 49] / 2 - you hold two cards yourself and order isn't important) combinations he is calling with, say it's 300 then that's 300/1225 or just under 25% = P and just over 75% = 1 - P

[GtrHtr]

never mind...