JJ in the small blind

[Aces McGee]

Party 3/6

there's a late position poster in this hand. my opponent is 26/3 after about 30 hands, with a very low aggression factor and a went to showdown of 50%. but i'm not paying much attention to that stuff, because it's only 30 hands.

he open raises in MP. folded around to me in the small blind, and I 3bet with jacks. he calls. Heads up to the flop.

Flop is AT6 rainbow.

What's my plan for the hand?

-McGee

[TomBrooks]

This is a very difficult spot without a better read on MP. Very hard to say what's best, it seems to me.

[KDawgCometh]

i'd check/call it down, or do the standard wa/wb line

[JojoDiego]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd check/call it down, or do the standard wa/wb line

[/ QUOTE ]

What's the standard way ahead/way behind line?

[sweetjazz]

I don't think check/folding is that bad here. You aren't beating much here. Is there a better line?

Lead out, fold to a flop raise. If just called, lead the turn and fold to a turn raise. If just called, lead the river and fold to a river raise (or check and fold to a bet).

I know it's only 30 hands, but all signs are pointing to this player being weak and passive. He indicated strength before the flop. We can't beat AA-TT, nor Ax. We are getting about 2-to-1 on a calldown here. Are we ahead 33% of the time on the flop? I hate being weak, but I don't see it. Can we manage to win the pot if villain has something like 99 or KQ without putting in a lot of bets the times he has AJ or QQ/KK?

[imported_CaseClosed326]

I would bet and fold to a raise. He will call down with weak hands and bet with hands that beat you. C/C seems bad because of his low aggression.

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
What's the standard way ahead/way behind line?

[/ QUOTE ]

Check/call, check/call, bet.

-McGee

[badbill7]

i think you bet here if nothing more than to get a read as far as wa wb. not enough hands. Does present a problem if he doesnt fold. I struggle with what the correct play on turn would be. Check fold? That would be my choice. Would appreciate some feedback.

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think check/folding is that bad here. You aren't beating much here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, I'm not beating much, if anything, particularly if he's as passive as these very preliminary stats suggest.

However, the pot has three big bets in it, and that's worth taking a shot at getting him to fold a better hand. The question is how to do it: bet or checkraise, and, if I'm called, if I should follow through on the turn and/or river.

Even though it generally signifies a strong hand, I'm not crazy about checkraising. Because I threebet preflop, the check will look suspicious, and he'll like just check the turn through with anything less than an ace, then call me down because he won't know if I was checkraising or just checking a hand like JJ. On the other hand, because he's so passive, I might be able to see more cards, cheaper, if he has a high pocket pair and is spooked by the ace.

I think I like betting better, because if he has a high pocket pair, it gives the appearance that he's going to have to spend 2.5 big bets to find out if I have an ace. He's more likely to fold, I think, if he believes he'll have to make a substantial investment on this hand.

The question becomes, as I mentioned, whether it's profitable to continue betting later on if I'm just called. In other words, can I take his flop call as a sign that he's committed to showdown?

-McGee

[Los Feliz Slim]

[ QUOTE ]

The question becomes, as I mentioned, whether it's profitable to continue betting later on if I'm just called. In other words, can I take his flop call as a sign that he's committed to showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

What's he calling a 3-bet preflop with that you're beating if he calls your flop bet? I'm throwing out a bet on the flop and check/folding the turn or river unless a miracle happens.